The arrival on Yugoslavia's political scene of Mr Vojislav Kostunica as a force capable of defeating President Slobodan Milosevic in the forthcoming elections has given hope to many ordinary Yugoslav citizens and to democrats and human rights activists elsewhere. Mr Kostunica has opened a wide lead in the opinion polls and appears to be free from contact with the evil and murderous political mafia which has, often literally, fought its way to power in Belgrade.
There has been an unfortunate tendency, fuelled by the Kosovo crisis of a year ago, to equate all Serbs with the barbarous actions of the Belgrade regime and its vicarious groups of thugs such as the "militia" led by the late and unlamented Arkan. The massive demonstrations in Belgrade in 1996 and 1997 in which an effigy of Mr Milosevic in prison garb was carried through the streets of the capital followed by vast crowds of demonstrators, have been all but obliterated from the memory by more recent and heartrending events.
On the eve of the Orthodox New Year in 1997, for example, half a million Serbs took to the streets of Belgrade to demand Mr Milosevic's removal from power. He has survived those protests. NATO action too has failed to remove him and there are now worries that even defeat at the polls on September 24th may not wrest power from his hands.
Even his most committed enemies have been forced to respect Mr Milosevic's political acumen. As his period as President of Serbia neared its end some three years ago there were hopes that his power base might be shattered. Instead the powers of the Serbian presidency were transferred to that of the previously ceremonial post of President of the Yugoslav Federation. Mr Milosevic then moved swiftly into that post, aided by a cast-iron parliamentary majority. There are now signs that a similar move may be afoot. The changes made earlier this year to the Yugoslav constitution suggest that even if he loses to Mr Kostunica, Mr Milosevic may remain in power until his initial mandate runs out in August 2001. This would give him plenty of time to set further machinations in train in order to allow him stage yet another constitutional coup.
In most countries an electoral defeat of the margin predicted in Yugoslav opinion polls would destroy the credibility of the losing candidate to an extent that he would be forced to resign. Yugoslavia is not one of those countries. Public opinion does not count for much in a police state controlled by a despotic and avaricious leader. The police force is strongly armed, extremely supportive of Mr Milosevic's leadership and is paid well enough to resist temptation to disloyalty. In short, it can be relied upon to put down opposition protests by the brutal methods it has used so often in the past.
In this context the urgings of western powers that the Yugoslav people should overthrow their president appear disingenuous in the extreme. It is to be hoped, however, that the prospect of further chicanery on Mr Milosevic's part does not deter voters from turning out to express their opposition to his presidency.