It is early days yet but there are encouraging indications of a groundbreaking rapprochement between India and Pakistan. Talks in New Delhi over the weekend between the civil servant heads of the respective foreign offices have paved the way for a meeting next Monday between the foreign ministers themselves. It would seem that both countries, benefiting from new governments (one strong, the other a fragile minority), have woken up to the disastrous economic consequences of, on the one hand, being on what amounts to a war footing and on the other, losing the benefits chat trade can bring. The two countries have been at war three times since independence; at last the merits of economic development may push jingoism from centre stage.
The sweeping victory of Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif and his Pakistan Muslim League in the general election in February did much to pave the way for meaningful dialogue. The Pakistan government has 177 of the 217 seats in the National Assembly. The People's Party of Ms Benazir Bhutto was routed and left with only 19 seats. The result gave Mr Sharif a mandate to get things done and he made it clear on election night that his two priorities are the economy and better relations with India, the second priority being to the benefit of the first. Mr Sharif has much to do if he is to turn the economy around but measures announced last week, albeit at the prompting of the International Monetary Fund, were a good start. His Government has decided on drastic cuts in import tariffs and company taxes. This will have to be paid for by cuts in Government spending which will not be easy. In Pakistan, only one child in four goes to school and only 15 per cent of the population have sewage facilities.
The Pakistan Muslim League draws most of its support from the business community and Mr Sharif's policies reflect that. One of his first decisions was to make Friday a working day again, returning the country to a western weekend despite Islamist protests. Similarly, he decided that frosty relations with neighbours were bad for trade so concessions came quickly; lower tariffs for Sri Lanka, Ganges water for Bangladesh, power sharing with Nepal. Now comes the big one closer ties with India, the arch enemy.
Neither government should expect dramatic consequences, such as a resolution of Kashmir, to flow from the dialogue and both have to watch their backs at home in case they be accused of being too conciliatory. But the 1,200 mile border is one of the most fortified in the world and it costs. Pakistan spent £2.5 billion on defence last year, a quarter of the government budget; India spent £6 billion. Better relations could lead to fewer troops on the border and more trade crossings of which, astonishingly, there is only one at present. Mr Sharif heads a strong government; his counterpart in New Delhi, Mr Deve Gowda, holds together a minority administration with difficulty. When Mr Gowda announced visa concessions for Pakistanis there was such uproar in Parliament that the session had to be adjourned. Hopefully Mr Sharif will ease the talks process along and not press Mr Gowda to make concessions which he cannot deliver. Better not to mention Kashmir at all.