A PROLONGED Israeli military campaign against the Hamas organisation in Gaza is an appalling prospect, given the huge number of civilian casualties so far and the consequent deepening of Israeli-Palestinian antagonism. This operation clearly has a strategic purpose going well beyond its announced objective of attaining a ceasefire to stop rocket attacks on Israeli communities. It is intended to destroy Hamas and its political base, whatever the human costs. Its timing between two United States administrations and before the Israeli elections makes that clear.
Military action on this quite disproportionate level is much more likely to deepen and reinforce the Israeli- Palestinian conflict than resolve it. The Hamas rockets are reprehensible but not equivalent to the scale of Israeli reaction. The huge asymmetry of military power on display over the last four days is intended to convince Palestinians that military resistance is impossible and ill-advised; but it is in fact likely to have the opposite effect. This is so despite the deep divisions between Fatah which rules the West Bank and Hamas. The reinforcement of Palestinian nationalism leads to calls for a third Intifada against Israel. This military operation will almost certainly make it more difficult to prepare another round of peace talks since Hamas militancy will benefit from its lethal brutality.
Ever since Hamas seized power from Fatah in Gaza last year, coming on top of its victory in the 2006 Palestinian elections, Israeli policy has aimed to destroy or undermine the movement. This is justified on the grounds that its objective is to destroy Israel rather than reach an agreement with it. But Hamas’s political appeal is related to its criticisms of Fatah’s failure to stand up to Israeli power. The evidence that Hamas leaders are willing to deal directly with Israel has been disregarded in the Israeli determination to take the organisation out of the political and diplomatic equation.
Hamas ended the six months ceasefire this month after its political credibility was undermined by an Israeli attack in early November. For most of that time rocket attacks on Israel did cease. The political option was there to renew the ceasefire. But demands by Hamas that the Israeli humanitarian and economic blockade of Gaza be lifted in return was unacceptable. That heavy-handed and indiscriminate action failed to undermine Hamas. Israelis feared that to deal directly with the organisation in advance of elections would be seen as a sign of weakness.
The last thing the Middle East or the world needs at this time is another prolonged Israeli-Palestinian conflict. International pressure for an immediate ceasefire must be increased and applied. The cynical assumption that an Israeli military defeat of Hamas will be easy to achieve should be vigorously contested. An elongated conflict would make it much more difficult to re-establish the regional peacemaking which would help bring greater international stability. President-elect Barack Obama together with the European Union should be prepared to mount such pressure. Without a courageous decision to engage Hamas – and its ally Iran – in talks, peacemaking is likely to fail.