DRAPIER: Drapier wrote here some weeks ago that the sooner this election was called the better. People, even the calmest, are living on their nerves, the place prey to jitters and rumours. The very mention of a new opinion poll brings people out in sweats. And so it was on Tuesday as early word seeped through of the TG4 and the IMS polls in Donegal and Dublin South East.
Drapier will not comment much on these polls. Donegal was not a surprise, though Tom Gildea must be wondering about the thanks he is apparently getting for helping to keep the show on the road these past five years. He is learning the hard way that in politics eaten bread is soon forgotten.
It was Dublin South East which sent the real ripples running through the House. A boost for Fianna Fáil, even if dangerously and perilously close to the edge for Eoin Ryan, comfortable news for Ruairí Quinn and John Gormley, much to think about for Michael McDowell and a sharp reality check for Frances Fitzgerald.
On the figures Fianna Fáil could win two seats. Garret FitzGerald and Joe Doyle did just that on roughly the same vote in 1989, but most of the smart money in here stuck with the conventional prediction of four ones - Fianna Fáil, Labour, Green and Fine Gael. But this time the predictions were made with an element of doubt. And there were some seasoned campaigners around who are not yet writing off Michael McDowell.
Drapier is still not going to call the result of the referendum. From the outset - and that's many months back - he was doubtful about its chances. Now the conventional wisdom is that it will be lost but Drapier is always suspicious of conventional wisdom. Dublin South East told one story this week with the referendum apparently moving to a heavy defeat while Donegal South West told exactly the opposite story.
On this occasion Drapier feels that Dublin South East may be the more accurate pointer but that's only a guess. It is clear however that the turnout is likely to be low. People have lived with the issue for 20 years. The fire is gone out of both sides, scare tactics don't work any more - no more than smear tactics will make any impact. Drapier hears from colleague after colleague that most people simply don't want to know.
Apart from the odd chain letter his referendum postbag has been empty. The angry curates, and dyspeptic parish priests, are no more. Even the weighty words of Desmond Connell make little impact.
Indeed Drapier even hears that some curates are in semi-revolt because of what they see as a lack of leadership from their lordships on other issues - and because of what they see and hear all round. So even their support cannot be counted upon. As for the political content in the Yes leadership - it's thin enough.
Nobody every thought for a moment that Bertie Ahern would accept Michael Noonan's challenge to a live TV debate, but he could hardly complain after his very political attack on Labour a week earlier. But Bertie Ahern is not the only politician absent from the fray - most of us have absented ourselves from the hustings and left the battle to a small number of resolute campaigners.
On the Yes side Mary Coughlin, one of the best liked members of the House has come out very well. Mary has shown herself to be one of the best of the junior ministers and if Bertie is in a position to hand out rewards later it is to Mary rather than the Cope he should turn.
On the No side Nora Owen is clearly enjoying her role as Fine Gael's director of elections and as some of those who have debated with her have discovered she is not slow to put the boot in.
Likewise with Liz McManus. Liz is one of the few people who can get under Bertie Ahern's skin but more than that she is an effective old-style campaigner and must surely be on Ruairí Quinn's short-list should Labour be in government. So how will it all end? Drapier suspects with a whimper rather than a bang. The row which surrounded the publication and distribution of the Referendum Commission leaflet was little more than a charade.
We are fooling ourselves if we think that a careful legal presentation of the two sides is going to influence many people. Indeed Drapier suspects that few enough of the leaflets will ever even be read. It's all an enormous waste of money and time - no fault of the excellent Referendum Commission but all the fault of those who gave them such an impossible task in the first place. We saw in the Nice Referendum that it didn't work and it really is time we began to look at other ways of presenting the issues to the public.
The Fine Gael Ard Fheis was the first of the pre-election outings. By all accounts it went well - the presentation was good, Michael Noonan clearly roused the troops who turned up in large numbers. True, the whole thing was stage managed and choreographed - but what Ard Fheis is not? The important thing is that it was done well - and it was. For the first time in months Fine Gael began to look like a party which had regained its self-belief and was ready for a real fight.
And finally this week the Disability Bill - or more accurately the shambles that surrounds it. Much as the Government sought to put a brave face on it all and make a virtue of the fact that there would now be consultations - as if they were conferring some sort of favour on the disabled groups - the facts are that it was an ignominious retreat.
Like many of his colleagues Drapier spoke over the past few week with representatives of the disabled groups. They were not just angry, they were outraged. They simply could not believe what they saw being offered. Any good things in the Bill - and in Drapier's view there are many - were brushed aside such was the sense of affront over the fundamental flaws and there is no way now the Bill will be enacted in the life of this Dáil. Drapier is not going to blame Mary Wallace. She is only the junior minister.
She works hard and her commitment to the disabled is not in question. But the problems should have been spotted before the Bill left Cabinet. The heavy hand of Finance should have been detected at a much earlier stage and the Government should at least have been aware of the enormity of the decisions they were taking.
Now the Bill is to be recalled and there is to be further consultations, but much of the damage has already been done. Somebody's eye was clearly not on the ball. Another good reason maybe why Bertie should call it a day and get to the country as quickly as possible.