The next phase of the campaign by secondary teachers for a 30 per cent pay increase begins this week. Some 350,000 students and their parents and guardians will again be discommoded as members of the Association of Secondary Teachers, Ireland (ASTI) withdraw from supervision on tomorrow, Wednesday and Thursday. A second national one-day strike is also planned for December 5th next.
There is, as yet, no sign of any climb-down by the union. Its weekend meeting to review strategy saw the ASTI dig deeper into the trenches. Senior members of the union expressed their determination to fight on and there was the now-familiar criticism of the Government for its failure to open "meaningful discussions".
But behind the bluster, there is the clear sense that it is the ASTI - rather than the Government - which is feeling the heat. On the basis of opinion poll evidence, public support for the teachers has begun to melt away. The union's industrial action, which it hoped would dominate public affairs, has been pushed down the agenda by the rash of other disputes. And there is no sign that the Government's resolve has been in any sense weakened by the ASTI's action.
It may be that things will get worse before they get better for the secondary teachers. In the next ten days, the Government is set to deliver a pay and tax package to the Irish National Teachers' Organisation (INTO), the Teachers' Union of Ireland (TUI) and the other public-service unions.
It is likely that the Budget will respond to trade union concerns by providing generous tax and other concessions. The benchmarking process, which links public-sector pay to that in the private sector, may be fast-tracked. There may be some kind of down payment on benchmarking or some other payment to compensate workers for the rise in inflation.
The ASTI cannot avail of these benchmarking concessions as it remains outside the partnership fold. It walked out of negotiations on the Programme for Prosperity and Fairness (PPF) and has refused to re-enter. But the PPF remains the only game in town; it is the only means by which the ASTI can pursue its 30 per cent claim.
The union faces some difficult options should it refuse to return to the partnership fold. It could escalate its action by disrupting the Leaving Cert oral examinations after Christmas; it could opt for all-out action. But both options would make the union look increasingly desperate and further alienate public opinion.
The irony is that the Government is ready to deliver a decent pay increase for the ASTI but the union continues to turn away. There is a way forward; the ASTI should abandon its damaging campaign of industrial action and make common cause with the other teaching unions. It should, like them, use the PPF to press its claim. It is not good enough for the ASTI to expect someone else to solve its problem; it needs to give the Government some room for manoeuvre.