Predicting the moment of departure of a dictator is not an exact science, but the odds against President Milosevic of Serbia surviving in power for much, longer, shortened noticeably in the last days of the old year. The army may remain united, but so does the opposition, and there have been signs, ominous for Mr Milosevic, that military loyalty cannot be taken for granted. It may be that in the vacuum that would follow his overthrow, senior officers already perceive a need or an opportunity for them to intervene.
That is only one of the uncertainties of the present political situation. The political demonstrators have shown a determination and a cohesiveness that the Belgrade government can hardly have expected when street protests began in mid November against the cancellation of local election results. The fact that these went against the regime showed that the political opposition, which on previous occasions mainly comprised intellectuals and certain economic sectors, has begun to command more widespread support. This has been confirmed by the stubborn continuation of marches in spite of growing repression by the policed and the deepening of winter.
How matters now develop will depend first on Mr Milosevic's will to hold on to power, which he can only do by greater use of violence against the protesters already strengthened by their first martyr at the hands of the police. The president lost most of his natural support by his adroit shift on the Bosnian issue which had consolidated his hold on Serb nationalism after the collapse of Yugoslavia. He has received no substantial new backing as a result of the moderate easing of living conditions since the lifting of sanctions, and Bosnian instability continues to hang like a Damoclean sword over Serbian politics.
Western equivocation has played its part in Mr Milosevic's retention of power. He is still a key figure in the effort to settle Bosnia and it is not certain that any of the political combinations poised to take his place will have either the commitment or the ability to maintain Serbia's posture as one of the peace makers. In that sense the vacuum if he goes, will have international implications, while it is not easy to believe that the succession struggle - with much at stake for the political aspirations of traditional Serb nationalism - will be bloodless, still less that it will obey the principles of democracy.
If one can judge from his previous record, Mr Milosevic will take just what he wants from the recommendation of the investigation of the Organisation for Co operation and Security in Europe (OCSC), which was led the former Spanish prime minister, Mr Felipe Gonzalez. Its report said that the annulment of the November elections should be reversed - as the courts have already ordered in some cases. Whether he is capable of such a wholesale climb down as this would entail, is doubtful, since it would mean accepting that the political demonstrators have been right since their protests began.