India and Pakistan, despite the extreme political and military tensions which currently beset them, have managed to keep diplomatic channels open.Their foreign ministers behaved courteously to each other yesterday in advance of the South Asian summit in Nepal. On NewYear's Day, as they have done for the past eleven years, the countries exchanged lists outlining their nuclear installations.
That they managed to do so once again, gives hope to those who welcome attempts at a peaceful resolution to the current crisis which reached its height following the terrorist attack on the Indian parliament last month.
Villagers on both sides of the border have voted with their feet for peace. Thousands of them have fled their homes for fear that hostilities might break out at any moment. Peace is also vital to the interests of the United States which has been heavily engaged in the region following the events of September 11th.
President Bush and Secretary of State, Powell, are faced with an extremely dangerous and complicated situation. Military analysts have predicted that India would emerge as the winner in any conflict involving either conventional or nuclear weapons. Pakistan's President, Mr Pervez Musharraf, would under such circumstances almost certainly be ousted from power and the US would lose an important ally. Even if war is avoided, as now appears likely, Mr Musharraf 's hold on power is under threat.
... ... * ... * ... * ... ...
At present, only a minority of fanatical religious fundamentalists are engaged in virulent opposition to Pakistan's assistance to the US operations against the Taliban and Osama bin Laden's al-Qaeda organisation. The Kashmir problem has been a source of instability since Britain partitioned the sub-continent in 1947 and strong popular feeling on the issue has resulted in a militant stance from successive Pakistani administrations. At this crucial stage, any weakening in Kashmiri policy could irreparably damage Mr Musharraf's power base.
But the previously indigenous movement for Kashmiri self-determination, which Mr Musharraf has supported, has been commandeered by precisely the type of Arab extremists that the US is combating in Afghanistan. Deportation of foreign militants from Pakistan allied to a further purging of fundamentalists from the Pakistani Intelligence Service (ISI) could be an important signal to India of his goodwill.
For its part, India, and in particular its powerful Minister for Home Affairs, Mr Lal Krishna Advani, need to recognise the dilemma that Mr Musharraf faces. India is rightly enraged at the vicious attack on its democratic institutions, but to respond militarily, would be disastrous for the entire region.
The cordial exchange between foreign ministers, and the trading of information about nuclear installations, are signs that diplomatic contacts between the countries continue to be active. It is through these channels only, that the current crisis must be resolved.