The renewed spate of violence by dissident republicans since the New Year is a timely, but ominous, reminder of the current threats to the Belfast Agreement from within and without the political system in Northern Ireland. In the latest incident - the fourth violent attack in ten days - a mortar bomb, packed with 200 lbs of home-made explosives, was launched over a security fence around the British Army's barracks at Ebrington in the Waterside area of Derry just after midnight yesterday. Members of the 1st battalion of the Royal Anglian Regiment, based in the camp, escaped injury when it failed to explode.
The Chief Constable of the RUC, Sir Ronnie Flanagan, has described the incident as "attempted mass murder". There was no warning. That the Ebrington attack has come in the wake of three other attempted bombings since January 14th - the RUC car at Cookstown, the 1,100 lb landmine outside Armagh city and the booby-trap bomb at Claudy at the weekend - must be a cause of serious concern to the British and Irish governments and the pro-agreement parties at a time when they are trying to broker a grand plan to resolve the issues of decommissioning, demilitarisation and policing in a lasting way.
It is no exaggeration to say that current developments on the political and paramilitary fronts are posing a potentially fatal challenge to the Belfast Agreement at its weakest time. The likelihood is that the peace process may have to withstand further attacks until - one dares to hope - the political and security institutions can be bedded down. The imperative for people of goodwill on all sides is to make democratic politics work in Northern Ireland. There must be a schedule for putting arms verifiably beyond use; a scaling-down of security installations at the appropriate time; and, as Mr David Trimble repeated yesterday, a policing service to enforce the laws made by the all-inclusive government.
The increase in the incidence of dissident republican violence coupled with the ethnic campaign against Catholics by anti-agreement elements of the UDA in Co Antrim are putting severe strains on the RUC. In an interview in this newspaper yesterday, the Chief Constable, Sir Ronnie Flanagan, warned that there should be no complacency about the dissident republican threat, especially from the "Real IRA".
The structural and personnel changes taking place in the RUC at this time of uncertainty were also signalled by the Chief Constable. Some 500 officers, many of them in senior ranks, are leaving the force by April under the Patten severance arrangements. A further 700 will go in the next financial year, excluding natural wastage of about 360 per year. About 1,500 officers left the RUC in the run-up to its statutory replacement by the Police Service of Northern Ireland in the autumn. The Chief Constable is losing 51 out of 180 chief superintendents and superintendents; and, by March, three out of eight senior assistant chief constables. Those who would hinder the early establishment of a new police service should be aware of the dangerous vacuum which may emerge.
So far the security forces in both jurisdictions have denied success to the extremists who seek to inflict large-scale loss of life or damage. But it is not impossible that a future attack will succeed. If that happens, those who are committed to the Agreement will have to withstand pressures which are difficult even now to imagine.