When the Taoiseach and the British Prime Minister meet at Hillsborough today, along with Northern Ireland political leaders, it will be in an atmosphere of justified apprehension. The weekly quota of sectarian street violence has continued since early summer. Serious injuries have been few and to date nobody has died directly as a result of these clashes. But innocent families have been driven from their homes. People have been put in fear of their lives. The police have been stretched nightly to cover the peace lines and senior officers have been blunt about the limitations on their resources.
Meanwhile, political pressure continues to mount on First Minister David Trimble and his Ulster Unionists. Anti-Agreement elements both within and without Mr Trimble's party now look eagerly to next May's elections as an opportunity to cut away his middle-ground support. At least partially in response to such pressure, Mr Trimble is pressing the Secretary of State, Dr John Reid, to evict Sinn Féin ministers from the Executive because of continuing republican violence.
Unionists declare themselves disquieted about the pace of IRA decommissioning, the Colombia affair and possible republican involvement in the Castlereagh break-in. But a detached observer would conclude that there is at least an equal degree of threat and belligerence from loyalists groupings at this point. Belfast Lord Mayor Alex Maskey's gesture towards the dead of the Somme must be seen as magnanimous in the context of Northern Ireland's traditional rigidities. Yet no unionist could bring himself to attend the Lord Mayor's inauguration.
It is difficult for moderates to maintain a business-as-usual stance in these testing days and in the face of tensions and attitudes like these. The coming weeks of the high marching season will mark a further intensification of malevolence and ill-will. The decision of the Parades Commission to prohibit the Orange march on Garvaghy Road - although fully expected - will raise further sentiments of sourness, resentment and alienation across the unionist community.
What can the two heads of government do when they meet today to cool the situation and to fortify the peace process? They can restate their joint and unequivocal commitment to the full implementation of the Agreement and by reaffirming their determination to use all their influence to achieve this. For Mr Ahern, this means maintaining the pressure on the IRA and Sinn Féin to complete decommissioning and to fully buy into the new policing arrangements. For Mr Blair, it means showing that he is is listening to David Trimble and the other voices of moderate unionism, that they have his attention and that he has not let Northern Ireland slip off his agenda.
It is a time for cool heads, for taking the long view and for renewed clarity over fundamental objectives. The Belfast Agreement may not be perfect and its progress may be slow. But as Senator George Mitchell pointed out on Monday, it is much preferable to the alternative of a future defined by violence.