ANALYSIS:The crisis that sparked the Bangkok protest and military response remains unresolved, writes CLIFFORD COONAN
THIS IS supposed to be the Land of Smiles. Urban warfare this week has transformed the streets of Bangkok into a place where smiles are precious little in evidence, as devastated citizens watched their city turn into a war zone. Troops were still mopping up pockets of Red-Shirted resistance yesterday.
Piles of burning tyres in the capital are smouldering. Opposition protesters as well as international media organisations are still counting their dead and wounded. Many of the Red Shirt leaders have given themselves up and been arrested.
It is too early to give a conclusive assessment of the damage to Thailand’s international reputation, but it is clear that it is going to take a long time for the country to bounce back from this unrest. As a second night of curfew brought silence to the streets of this normally bustling city, a prolonged period of political unrest looks to be on the cards.
So when can the thousands of Irish tourists who have a great affection for this country come to Thailand on holiday again? The answer is that it’s probably not quite time yet to pack the bucket and spade.
One buzz word flying around the text messaging communities is coup. Could another intervention by the army be in the offing, just like the one in 2005 that ousted former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra. Was that, in fact, what we witnessed this week – the early stages of a coup?
The military coup led by Gen Sonthi Boonyaratkalin was intended to create peace in the country, but it hasn’t worked and clearly there are issues that are tearing the country apart.
A significant piece of satire was visible in the protesters’ zone in Bangkok yesterday, when a man had posted a slogan on his awning which read: Democracy in Thailand is dead. Welcome to Myanmar II.
Thailand’s government is far removed from the military junta in Burma, but the opposition likes to make parallels. Prime minister Abhisit Vejjajivas’s government was imposed after successive governments elected Thaksin and parties led by his friends and family. The government, despite the fact it was democratically elected, needed to be changed.
Abhisit had little option but to clear the Rajprasong protesters. Few leaders anywhere in the world would tolerate a lengthy occupation of their capital city’s main thoroughfare by a vocal opposition group. In this respect Abhisit has shown a certain resolve of purpose.
His government however has been badly damaged by the need to intervene against the protesters, many of whom support his political arch-enemy, the exiled Thaksin.
The events of Wednesday were shocking, even if the army response was relatively restrained given the fact that the city centre was occupied and rendered unusable for two months by a group of protesters. The biggest blow so far to Abhisit’s popularity came after the crackdown on protests in the Old Quarter on April 10th, which killed 25 people and injured hundreds.
There is little mention of this event in Thailand’s media and many of the Red Shirts you talk to are incensed that this has not been properly investigated.
One of Abhisit’s ideas has been to create a national reconciliation plan, which has been widely supported. However he has also been criticised for failing to build political support to revise a military-written constitution that overtook a 1997 charter seen as Thailand’s most democratic constitution.
Talk of civil war is most likely premature, chiefly because the Thai army has the guns and the Red Shirts have very little beyond handmade rocket launchers and some grenade launchers.
However, there are question marks over the loyalty of factions within the army and the police. Moreover, should events escalate further, then the allegiance of these factions will become clearer.
Attention also turns to King Bhumibol Adulyadej, who is 82 and has stepped in to end previous deadly crises during his 63 years on the throne. However, he has been in hospital for months now and has not commented publicly in a significant way on this latest upheaval.
The king’s health is an extremely sensitive topic in Thailand because of concerns about his succession. His son, Crown Prince Vajiralongkorn, does not yet have the stature or moral authority of his father.
Online revelations accusing him of at-times odd behaviour, especially related to his dog, means that he has still to gain in the stature fitting to his office in the eyes of many Thais.
The king, the world’s longest-serving monarch, is revered by everyone in Thailand, high and low, yellow and red. In recent years the royal palace has come in for unprecedented, although ever discreet and usually mild, criticism because of allegations that the king’s advisers have been too busy playing politics, including playing a part in inspiring the coup that ousted Thaksin’s government.
That administration was blighted by corruption and cronyism, but it was still a democratically elected one.
What most people agree on is that the political system needs reform, especially rules that tend to favour the elite over rural masses.
If pushed aside by his powerful backers, Abhisit would likely be replaced by a coalition partner reckoned to be acceptable to the public in a caretaker role. That would do little to resolve the problem, potentially inciting more protests and strengthening the case for immediate polls the protesters’ allies would likely win.
Abhisit needs to win support, but also needs to address the problems that are tearing the country apart. When that happens, the rest of the world can hope that Thailand’s smile will be back soon.
Clifford Coonan reporting from Bangkok is Irish TimesBeijing correspondent