With four weeks to go till the referendum on the Treaty of Nice, the Government yesterday launched its campaign for a Yes vote. The Taoiseach, Mr Ahern, put the forthcoming enlargement of the European Union very much at the centre of his case, saying the treaty "puts the EU's house in order for the entry of more members, without altering in any way the Union's basic character or undermining Ireland's place within it". Accompanied by many of his Cabinet, he appealed for an informed debate and expressed confidence that the people will vote in favour.
Mr Ahern was impatient with suggestions that the treaty is too complex for ordinary people to understand. He argued that the elecorate knew well it meant opening the door to EU membership for the countries of eastern Europe. He was generous in his praise for the enlargement process, saying it will be good for Europe and Ireland, opening up fresh markets and opportunities for political alliances and renewed friendships. He denied the treaty will lead to a two-tier Europe, create a European army or a federal European superstate. He said the treaty represented the best and fairest agreement which could have been reached between the 15 member-states.
This is a straightforward defence of the Nice Treaty. It relies strongly on the argument for enlargement, which is a convincing interpretation of the treaty and was certainly the main objective driving it. But the treaty's opponents have pointed out that there is already provision for enlarging the EU to 20 members, and that many of the new elements - such as easier use of enhanced co-operation, extended qualified majority voting or stronger powers for the European Commission president - can be used whether or not enlargement happens rapidly. They deny they are against enlargement but say they want to see it happen more equitably and with less pooling of sovereignty. But they are vulnerable to the criticism that these treaty changes are essential to manage an EU of nearly double its existing size.
So far, little has been heard from those who oppose the treaty because it does not go far enough towards integration, although that is a common criticism elsewhere in Europe. One way or another the referendum looks like being closely fought, with many of those opposing the treaty having already launched their campaigns.
It will be a challenge for both sides to mobilise and motivate voters on the issues over the next four weeks. Most of the established parties and interest groups are in favour. But if they want to win, they will need to campaign vigorously and avoid complacency about the outcome. They will need to address the issues raised about security and defence, the future shape of the European Union and the dangers of an inequitably divided Europe. These issues are too important to be confused by an ill-informed debate before an apathetic electorate.