IF TODAY'S Irish Times/TNS mrbi poll on voters' attitudes to the Lisbon Treaty says anything it is that the battle still very much has to be won. The two to one margin in favour of a Yes vote will be some comfort to the Government, but nearly half of voters still say they don't know how they will vote.
It is worth remembering that at this stage in the campaign on the first Nice Treaty referendum in 2001, The Irish Times poll recorded Yes support at 52 per cent, a full 17 points higher than today. A disastrously low turnout by uninspired Yes supporters coupled with a taken-for-granted campaign, then gave the No camp victory. The campaign on Nice II a year later, brought turnout up from 34 per cent to 49 per cent, half a million more voters, almost all Yes, securing victory. Driving up turnout will again be the critical task for the Yes alliance this year.
With the election of new Taoiseach Brian Cowen that challenge falls most squarely on his shoulders in the weeks until June 12th. The poll confirms the well-known political reality that Fianna Fáil supporters are far more loyal to their party's line than those of other parties - with 47 per cent of them supporting Lisbon to 10 per cent against. On the other hand, Fine Gael Yes voters - 32 per cent of their supporters - are only in favour by the small margin of 5 points. And a majority of PD voters actually oppose the treaty despite their party's official stance. Success in energising the Fianna Fáil battalions will make or break the treaty.
Most worryingly, voters in general also express even lower levels of understanding of the treaty than they did at the same stage in the Nice I campaign, with only 29 per cent saying they have either a good or partial understanding compared to 37 per cent in 2001. Among No voters a third cite their lack of understanding as the prime motivation for their vote.
There are also significant divergences between men and women, and younger and older voters. Eleven per cent fewer women than men support the treaty, while the gap is over 15 points between young people and the over-50s. In both cases this reflects largely the fact that there are significantly more "don't knows" among women and the young, Clearly, a huge and imaginative information challenge still lies ahead in the next four weeks.
Those who will vote Yes say their motivations are predominantly to do with their support for Irish engagement in the EU, a desire to see it run more effectively both internally and on the world stage, and for economic reasons. Low on their list of reasons, the Government should note, are either the opinions of politicians or a dislike of the opposition. A campaigning focus on the positive virtues of EU membership will be essential - apart from the No-voting farmers, for whom the issue is the WTO talks. The majority of No voters explain their rationale in terms of not understanding the treaty, wanting to protest against the Government, or not liking being told what to do. Neutrality is at the top of the list. Mr Cowen made a passionate case for the treaty on his election; Enda Kenny still has to do so.