Tomorrow may prove to be one of the more interesting days in the history of Belarus. The president, Mr Aleksandr Lukashenko, is holding a referendum which proposes to give him much greater powers but he has also agreed under pressure from Moscow - that the result of the referendum will have no legal basis. His opponents in parliament have threatened to run their own referendum tomorrow calling for the presidency to be abolished. The president's referendum will take place, as might the opposition one, although Mr Lukashenko has closed the central election commission and handed polling responsibilities to his officials. Only one outcome is certain; Belarus is going to be even more confused on Monday.
Mr Lukashenko had made clear his determination to press ahead with the referendum - and enforce its result if the outcome is to his liking - despite much opposition at home and expressions of deep concern from the European Union, the Council of Europe and the United States. On Thursday however he had a telephone call from President Yeltsin and a visit from the Russian Prime Minister, Mr Chernomyrdin. Mr Lukashenko wears Western displeasure like a badge of honour but disapproval from Moscow - to which he is indebted and with which he would like de facto union is another matter. His decision is a significant climb down for a leader well used to getting his own way but he will regard it only as a minor setback on the road to one party rule and unlimited power for himself.
The good news out of Belarus yesterday was that the last 18 of the SS-25 nuclear missiles, a leftover from the Soviet Union, have been sent up to Russia for dismantlement. This is no more than had been agreed under the START treaty. Mr Lukashenko however is a staunch opponent of NATO expansion eastwards and had suggested that he might keep the weapons to stop NATO popping some missiles into Poland which shares a border with Belarus. Mr Yeltsin deserves credit for insisting that the missiles come out Eastern Europe will be much the safer for it.
What Mr Yeltsin must now do is maintain democracy in Belarus and contain Mr Lukashenko's autocratic tendencies. The deal reached on Thursday is not encouraging. A new constitution is to be hammered out by a constitutional committee, one half of which will be appointed by the president and one half by the parliament (where he has supporters), and will be chaired by the president. The wonder is that the chairman of the parliament, Mr Semyon Sharetsky, agreed to this. On Monday, the European Union will commence discussion on the Belarus request for closer trade ties. Brussels would do well to avoid hasty decisions and should make it clear that trade advantages will not be forthcoming if Belarus continues to slide towards dictatorship.