The challenge for the DUP

Seamus Heaney characterised the challenge for the politicians and the people of both communities in Northern Ireland some years…

Seamus Heaney characterised the challenge for the politicians and the people of both communities in Northern Ireland some years ago to make hope and history rhyme. This challenge is compelling this week. Can Sinn Féin and the Democratic Unionist Party, the political extremes elected to the forefront of Northern Ireland politics, make this happen? There are conflicting signals at the time of writing, and studious efforts are being made by the two parties to prepare the blame game.

The Irish and British governments presented their proposals for the decommissioning of IRA arms and the restoration of the Executive to the parties in the last week. There is little optimism as they consider their responses. And there is a full realisation that if this "final acts of completion" initiative fails, 10 years after the first IRA ceasefire in Mr Albert Reynolds's period in office and 6½ years after the ratification of the Belfast Agreement, political progress will be postponed until well after the next British general election.

For all of that, it appears that the two governments are satisfied that they have put a fair and final compromise to the DUP and Sinn Féin. The Outline for a Comprehensive Agreement was put to the DUP by Mr Tony Blair in London last Wednesday while the Taoiseach presented it to Sinn Féin in Dublin. It must be a measure of the seriousness of the situation, rather than the fear of political fall-out in the blame game, that the document has not leaked to the media.

Informed reports would suggest, however, that the manner of the standing down of the IRA by Christmas and the issue of policing are the two main concerns of the DUP. If the IRA is to disappear as a paramilitary army, what commitment is there that it would go away? Would it become a peaceful organisation and would its members expect to move, lock, stock and barrel, into the police force within a specified period of time? And, for political purposes since so many unfilled commitments have been given before, could its decommissioning acts be executed with some measure of transparency in order to win public confidence?

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In such circumstances, what commitment would the DUP give to the restoration of the political institutions in Northern Ireland? How would the First and Deputy First Ministers be elected? And would Dr Ian Paisley, the leader of the DUP, lead his party into government with Mr Martin McGuinness of Sinn Féin?

It is easy to see how it is in Sinn Féin's interest that the IRA would cease to be a paramilitary army at this point. The prospect, however remote, is held out that Sinn Féin could be in government in the Republic after the next general election in 2007. It is more difficult to calculate the DUP's medium-term interest this side of a British general election. But, the standing down of the IRA - if that is set out clearly and unambiguously - should not be set aside lightly. It is an achievement of historic proportions being put on the table.