The leader of the Ulster Unionist Party, Mr David Trimble, will be fighting on two fronts when he goes before his party's council in Belfast today. The Rev Martin Smyth, a Presbyterian minister and former head of the Orange Order, has challenged for the leadership of the party, while a motion on the RUC in the name of Mr David Burnside seeks to frustrate the creation of a new executive if the RUC name is not retained. In effect, the opponents of the Belfast Agreement within the Ulster Unionist Party have decided that now is the time to destroy Mr Trimble along with his hopes for a new and inclusive society in Northern Ireland.
The forces in play are formidable. Mr Smyth's challenge is being supported by a former leader, Mr James Molyneaux; by a would-be contender, Mr Jeffrey Donaldson and by a majority of Westminster Unionist MPs. The efforts of Mr Burnside are more subtle, directed at the middle ground and seeking emotional support based on a change in the name of the RUC. Both attempts are grounded in the failure of republicans to deliver on an understanding that decommissioning would follow the establishment of an inclusive executive. The willingness of Mr Trimble to give republicans a second chance and to hold open the prospect of a new executive, in response to specific undertakings short of arms decommissioning, has precipitated today's challenges.
The Belfast Agreement offers the only realistic template for long-term peace and stability on this island and it has been endorsed by overwhelming majorities on both sides of the Border. Last month, immediately before the Northern Secretary, Mr Peter Mandelson, suspended the executive, the Sinn Fein president, Mr Gerry Adams, spoke of a new and significant proposition to resolve the arms issue. And General De Chastelain told the governments the IRA was prepared to consider how to put arms and explosives beyond use in the context of the full implementation of the Agreement. Since then, the offer has been withdrawn and the IRA has broken off contact with General de Chastelain. But the Irish and British governments have sought to build on that advance over the last number of weeks. And Mr Trimble has indicated a willingness to listen to any new proposition that would advance the political process and confirm an end to violence while promising decommissioning.
The Ulster Unionist Council will today be asked to re-endorse the only available political mechanism, and a leader capable of making it work. There is no political alternative, other than a return to the antagonisms and sterility of the past. Council members should look coldly at the tactics that have been employed by Mr Trimble's most vociferous enemies, within and outside of their party. Those within the UUP opposed to the Belfast Agreement, and to an inclusive executive, have consistently sniped at and attempted to undermine Mr Trimble. They ignored the uncomfortable fact that saying No - and little else - has seriously damaged the unionist cause in recent years. The alacrity of the Democratic Unionist Party in taking their seats when a power-sharing executive was established should also be carefully weighed.
Mr Trimble is an increasingly skilful politician who has learned to shape the political agenda, rather than engage in knee-jerk reaction. He recognises that old certainties cannot exist when a society is in flux, no matter that elements of a divided community might prefer such a situation. That is the core message of the Belfast Agreement, signed by two governments and the pro-Agreement political parties nearly two years ago. Republicans, and particularly the IRA, have yet to fully embrace that imperative for new thinking. But for the UUP to lose its nerve and abandon the Belfast Agreement at this time would be a dreadful blunder. The Agreement has been overwhelmingly endorsed by the electorate. Politicians have an obligation to make it work.