The Chance of Peace

With 236 people killed - most of them Palestinians - in the violence between Israeli forces and the population of the occupied…

With 236 people killed - most of them Palestinians - in the violence between Israeli forces and the population of the occupied territories, there is a grave danger of the situation settling down to a long and deadly conflict. The perils of such a pessimistic conclusion are continuing to drive efforts to implement the ceasefire accords reached last month at Sharm El-Sheikh. Only if that happens will peace talks be resumed. The one glimmer of hope that this might be possible arises from the political circumstances facing all the major parties to the conflict, in which they have more to gain from talking than fighting.

This has been one of the most fatal weeks as setpiece battles using lethal force became routine. The Israeli prime minister, Mr Barak, spoke bluntly about being willing to inflict many more casualties if that would bring the violence to an end. But the opposite is the case, he added. He is once again facing a political deadline in domestic politics. Bolstered by consistent opinion poll findings that Israelis substantially favour a peace deal with the Palestinians despite the violence, he is reported to be ready to offer a coalition to the Orthodox Jewish Shas party in order to keep the option of a peace deal open.

Shas favours the peace process, but a coalition with them would require agreeing to fund their private religious educational system from public funds, a condition which is anathema to many secular Israelis. Nevertheless, Mr Barak is prepared to take a gamble that if it gives him the opportunity to reach an agreement with the Palestinians, he would be able to win a subsequent election in which peace would be the primary issue. It is easier to understand his position having regard to the other consistent poll finding - that the Likud party, if led by the former prime minister, Mr Benjamin Netanyahu, would roundly defeat Mr Barak in an election without a peace deal on offer.

Knowledge of this balance of political forces within Israel has animated those who still believe it will be possible to revive the Oslo peace process. That includes Mr Yasser Arafat's leadership group, despite their alienation as a result of the quite disproportionate use of lethal armed force on the Israeli side. They too, would have much to lose were the Oslo process to collapse. But they have to contend with an aroused public opinion ill-disposed to opportunistic or unprincipled compromises and with many groups who want the Palestinian uprising to continue. Mr Arafat has hinted that he does not rule out reaching an agreement with Israel before President Clinton leaves office in two months time. For that to happen, there would have to be a major psychological adjustment on both sides. Equally, there would have to be agreement to stop the violence and mount a credible international inquiry into why it happened.