The results of the RTE Cork/Lansdowne opinion poll published yesterday confirm that the outcome of next Friday's by-election in Cork South-Central remains in the balance, if shaded in favour of Fine Gael. It has developed into a contest between two young, articulate and energetic candidates, Simon Coveney of Fine Gael and Sinead Behan of Fianna Fail.
Mr Coveney (26), who is attempting to hold the seat won by his late father, Hugh, remains ahead with some 35 per cent of first preferences. But Ms Behan, who has run an impressive campaign, is just one point behind with 34 percentage points. Labour's Toddy O'Sullivan, campaigning to win the seat he held for 16 years until last year's general election, has surged to 19 per cent of first preferences, an increase of five points since a Sunday Independent poll last weekend. Mr O'Sullivan's gain appears to have been largely at the expense of the Green party candidate, Mr Dan Boyle.
The closely-contested nature of the campaign has surprised observers who assumed that Simon Coveney would retain the seat comfortably. This, however, is to underestimate the implications of the last general election result in which Fianna Fail polled over 42 per cent in the constituency.
For all that, the Coveney factor may prove decisive. Hugh Coveney was one of the most popular and respected political figures in Cork, a man whose warmth and personal charisma allowed him to draw support across party lines. Not unnaturally, Simon Coveney has been able to tap into a large measure of this support but he failed to shake off Ms Behan - even though Fianna Fail is battling for a fourth seat in the five-seater constituency.
Ms Behan, the 29-year-old Cork solicitor, has undoubtedly benefited from the personal popularity of the Taoiseach, Mr Ahern - and that of her Director of Elections, the Minister of Education, Mr Martin, - but she has also succeeded in establishing her own identity in the minds of voters. Most significantly, Fianna Fail has also identified the critical importance of drawing transfers from Mr O'Sullivan and the other candidates.
For the Progressive Democrats, languishing according to the latest poll at just one per cent, the campaign has been an acute disappointment. Cork South-Central, the former constituency of Pearse Wyse and Pat Cox, might have been regarded as belonging to the party's heartland. A poor performance this Friday is likely to add to the sense of electoral depression within the party.
At this writing, Mr Coveney remains poised to win the seat and provide a boost for Mr Bruton's leadership. According to the polls, Labour's transfer pattern is heavily skewed towards Fine Gael, rather than Fianna Fail. On current estimates, Ms Behan would need to be some five or six percentage points ahead of Mr Coveney on first preferences to stand a realistic chance of taking the seat. For all that, the Government will be heartened by the campaign to date. Most governments learn to take by-elections defeats in their stride as the voters take the opportunity to deliver a protest vote. Fianna Fail may not win the seat in Cork South-Central, but there are few signs of an electorate itching to eject the current administration from office.