The Government's decision to hold the Nice Treaty referendum on Saturday, October 19th is welcome - and necessary in view of the uncertainty that has developed on the precise date for voting. It will give all concerned four full weeks in which to campaign and raise public awareness of the profoundly important issues at stake. This is a tight timetable. But given the clear evidence of stepped up activity in the last two weeks, and now the commitment of the Fianna Fáil organisation to become fully involved, it should be sufficient for an effective campaign.
Unless this political mobilisation is delivered upon, the Government has little chance of winning a popular endorsement of the Nice Treaty in the referendum. The Taoiseach, Mr Ahern, has put his own and the Cabinet's reputation decisively on the line in getting it accepted after last year's abysmally complacent campaign culminated in a clear-cut 54 - 46 per cent victory for the No side, but on a turnout of only 35 per cent of the electorate. Mr Ahern has spelled this out to Fianna Fáil TDs and says he intends to treat the campaign as if it were a general election. It is the major issue facing his Government. If he were to lose the referendum Mr Ahern would be politically damaged at home, and humiliated abroad.
He says he is satisfied that enough material is being delivered to households on which voting decisions can be made, backed up by a real canvassing effort. The choice of a Saturday poll for the first time to encourage younger people to vote is welcome; but a real effort to get them out will be essential, in view of the Referendum Commission's finding that few of them intend to vote. The same will apply to many other voters, who feel they are badly informed about the implications of the Nice Treaty and dissatisfied with the way European Union business is conducted.
Given the gravity of the issues at stake for Ireland, and for Europe, this campaign will be a real test of the capacity of Ireland's political system. All the indications are that it will be a much more engaged and closely fought campaign than last year's. The political parties, large and small, are prepared for it, despite having used up so much energy in the general elections. There is a much greater involvement of civil society organisations, especially of those in favour of ratifying the treaty.
This referendum is winnable by the Yes side. They deserve to win it on the balance of the arguments. The treaty is the political means agreed by 15 governments to enable EU enlargement to take place smoothly and in timely fashion. This would deliver on the historic commitment to unify Europe laid down after the end of the Cold War in 1989. Such a positive vision for Ireland's future in the EU needs to be put convincingly and confidently if Ireland is to avoid a disastrous loss of influence and international standing by rejecting the treaty a second time.