The debt the North owes Clinton

How much does it matter to this country who finally gets to hold power in the White House? A great deal, for a whole lot of reasons…

How much does it matter to this country who finally gets to hold power in the White House? A great deal, for a whole lot of reasons. The continued success of the US economy, the handling of foreign policy, relations with the European Union, particularly over defence issues - these are some of the more obvious areas where important decisions taken in Washington will affect all our lives.

We know from experience that social and economic attitudes in the US to health, race, tax cuts versus increased public spending etc, will influence the way we approach such issues here.

Over and above all of these, there is the fact that Bill Clinton's deep interest in Northern Ireland has played a crucial part in enabling us to escape from the horrors of the past 30 years. The result of the recount in Florida is expected later today, but already some people are asking what the arrival of a new President at the White House will mean to the peace process.

What will happen when the next crisis hits the Belfast Agreement and there is no nanny on Capitol Hill to knock heads together and wipe away the tears?

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President Clinton will visit Belfast next month. As he told one reporter recently: "They can call me a lame duck, but I've some weeks to go and I'm going to keep on quacking." For many of us his visit will recall one of the most poignant moments of the long and bumpy road to peace, when he switched on the lights on the Christmas tree outside City Hall. It was November l995; Van Morrison sang Days Like This; and for the first time the crowds on the streets dared to believe peace might be possible.

We have come a long way since then. Of course it's true the peace process in Northern Ireland is seen as one, perhaps the only one, of Bill Clinton's foreign policy successes. This does not diminish the importance of what he has done. His commitment grew from a personal interest dating back to his time in Oxford when the civil rights movement exploded on to the streets of Derry and Belfast. This knowledge enabled him to take difficult decisions, even when these put the old Anglo-American alliance under strain.

Much has been made of Clinton's availability and his ability to pick up the phone to harass or cajole each of the parties to the conflict to take another step forward. Equally important was the calibre of the people he deployed to further the peace process - George Mitchell, Jean Kennedy Smith, Nancy Soderberg and others.

But perhaps Mr Clinton's most important contribution has been to give Northern Ireland's own politicians, on both sides, the confidence to believe they have the ability to shape their own destiny. There were times, after a visit to the White House, when it seemed David Trimble and Gerry Adams stood visibly taller, shoulders squared to face the difficult road ahead.

The reach has been generous and inclusive. Former paramilitaries, women's groups, victims of the violence were made welcome by both the Clintons, and this too helped to build confidence that the political process could deliver change.

We can hardly hope for that level of intellectual and political engagement from the new president. Despite, or perhaps because of, the fact that Northern Ireland was a foreign policy success for the outgoing administration, it hardly figured in the presidential campaign. Ironically, it was George Bush who gave generous praise to Bill Clinton for his contribution to the peace process and pledged, if elected, to continue with his policies.

Northern Ireland may have to get used to the fact that it is no longer a top priority in the White House, but that does not mean it will disappear from the political agenda. It is a long time now since John Hume began the task of winning friends and influencing people across the political divide in Congress. The efforts of successive Irish ambassadors to Washington have ensured there is a much more sophisticated understanding of Northern Ireland's problems and support for an equitable and fair settlement. Friends of Ireland, in political and business circles, now exercise formidable clout and this will not change. The election of Hillary Clinton means that a woman who has reached out to some of the most vulnerable groups in Northern Ireland will now be heard in the US Senate.

The British and Irish governments are hoping Bill Clinton's visit to Belfast might provide an opportunity to orchestrate a way out of the present problems in the peace process. This would probably mean that the IRA would open discussions with Gen de Chastelain and that this would be followed by David Trimble reversing his ban on Sinn Fein.

There are already hopeful signs that all the pro-agreement parties want to see this argument resolved as quickly as possible. Gerry Adams has said the present situation is "untenable", but has stopped short of issuing a legal challenge to David Trimble's action. The Ulster Unionist leader has indicated, mirabile dictu, that he understands the problem his decision has caused to Sinn Fein.

Seamus Mallon has demonstrated his support for the integrity of the cross-Border structures, while at the same time maintaining, at least in public, a reasonably decent relationship with David Trimble. All this points to a quite new political maturity, along with an overt recognition that the Belfast Agreement can and must be made to work. This may be Bill Clinton's most important legacy to the peace process; that Northern Ireland's politicians are no longer dependent on being coaxed and bullied by a powerful figure in the White House.

It's time to bid a fond farewell to the comfort blanket.