Unfortunately, there were no surprises at the annual conference of the Democratic Unionist Party in Belfast, where delegates celebrated recent political gains. The party had laid out its negotiating stall earlier last week with the publication of "Facing Reality", a document advocating the phased restoration of the Northern Ireland institutions, but with the appointment of an executive deferred until the party was satisfied that all IRA criminality had ceased.
And, although the Irish and British governments had signalled that there could be no withdrawal from the terms and structures of the Belfast Agreement, the party's deputy leader, Peter Robinson, declared the document to be dead.
It was a conference for celebration rather than policy- formation. The party faithful rejoiced at the humbling of the Ulster Unionist Party, the departure of David Trimble and the great triumph of the DUP, now the largest political party in the North and fourth in line at Westminster. With his 80th birthday approaching and marking his 35th year as party leader, a robust Ian Paisley was having no truck with Sinn Féin, while Mr Robinson thought it simply preposterous that the two governments should expect them to share power with people who were directly linked to criminal activity.
Behind the impassioned rhetoric and the ritual condemnation of Sinn Féin, however, party officers were taking a more sanguine view. Negotiations on the re-establishment of an assembly and executive will open in Belfast today and political issues will eventually be resolved there. But there will be little progress until the Independent Monitoring Commission (IMC) provides Sinn Féin with a clean bill of health. The IMC will not report again until April and seasoned observers do not expect any major political developments until the autumn.
That political hiatus is likely to place considerable pressure on the democratic process in the North. The Sinn Féin president, Gerry Adams, spoke at the weekend of the need to re-establish the Northern institutions, end direct rule and take decision-making away from British ministers. But while the DUP also favours devolution and opposes many of the local government reforms proposed by the Northern Secretary, it has no appetite for a power-sharing executive at this time and Dr Paisley spoke vaguely of a type of government based on committees.
The political holding operation now being embarked upon by the DUP contains serious dangers. The IMC report was liberally quoted in condemning republican criminality. But the challenge to law and order posed by the far more extensive activities of the UDA and UVF in loyalist areas was largely ignored. Loyalist gunmen have been blamed for 94 per cent of recent murders and shootings. As the largest political party, the DUP must show the same determination to put an end to paramilitary activity within loyalist areas that it demands from Sinn Féin in republican districts.