The DUP is not for turning

In all likelihood, the report by the International Monitoring Commission at the end of January will testify to an almost complete…

In all likelihood, the report by the International Monitoring Commission at the end of January will testify to an almost complete absence of IRA activity during the past few months.

Following on from that, there will be a concerted attempt by the British, Irish and US governments to pressurise the DUP into taking its place alongside Sinn Féin in a Northern Ireland power-sharing executive.

They will be wasting their time.

It is now clearer than ever that the DUP does not intend, under any circumstances, to enter into devolved government with republicans.

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Recent comments on RTÉ Radio by Democratic Unionist MP Jeffrey Donaldson have been interpreted in some quarters as signalling that a couple of positive IMC reports might well be enough for the DUP to begin serious negotiations.

He said: "We have to wait on the IRA to come clean. I don't want to put the IRA into government. We're not going into government with Sinn Féin until they are cleaner than clean." In light of the history of the peace process and, to put it at its mildest, a complete lack of trust between the two parties involved, it would be more realistic to begin speculating on how many glowing IMC reports it might take before the DUP would even consider taking such a momentous step as publicly adjudging republicans "cleaner than clean".

It is likely that Donaldson, with his talk of "putting the IRA into government", was actually setting what will prove to be an impossible standard and, albeit in sugar-coated fashion, virtually dismissing out of hand future IMC reports before they have been published.

With the Northern Bank robbery, the break-in at Castlereagh, the spy ring at Stormont and the exploits of the "Colombia Three" still fresh in the public mind and able to be exploited to the full, the DUP will be confident that it can string out negotiations with the three governments for as long as it likes. During that time, it can tantalise and tease without committing to anything, while continuing to consolidate its electoral position within unionism by negotiating extra British government funding for loyalist working-class areas.

That all of the major parties in the Republic still refuse to countenance sharing power with Sinn Féin, but continue to argue that unionists should, adds further strength to the DUP position. Finer points about the fundamental difference between accepting Sinn Féin into a regional executive, as opposed to granting them ministerial positions within the government of a sovereign state, are lost on the unionist electorate.

This is presented by the DUP as a clear example of double standards, and readily accepted as such. In a statement earlier this week, ostensibly berating the SDLP for failing to "leave go the hand of Sinn Féin", DUP MP Iris Robinson was less circumspect than Jeffrey Donaldson in spelling out the conditions under which her party envisages a devolved assembly being returned to Northern Ireland.

After declaring that there will be no return to "the failed Belfast Agreement agenda", Ms Robinson called on the SDLP "to join other democratic parties to establish a devolved government". She also stated: "The DUP will not be settling for second best in our efforts to secure durable devolution that is free from the taints of terrorism and criminality."

The DUP's somewhat narrow and often highly selective interpretation of what constitutes "other democratic parties" and "a devolved administration free from the taints of terrorism and criminality" would alone seem to rule out any notion of executive positions for Sinn Féin. However, as if to avoid any confusion, by also calling on the SDLP to abandon Sinn Féin to its own devices, Ms Robinson left no room for doubt.

The only thing the DUP is likely to respond to is pressure that emanates from within the unionist community and that is non-existent at present. Neither, if at all, is it likely to manifest itself anytime in the foreseeable future.

There is no yearning within unionism for a return of devolved government and absolutely no appetite for anything that has Sinn Féin in executive positions.

Sinn Féin's refusal to support the new policing arrangements in Northern Ireland remains, on its own, a potentially insurmountable obstacle to any reinstatement of the assembly. Though often declared, it also seriously calls into question any real commitment by republicans to law and order and the democratic process. That republican support for the PSNI is dependent on responsibility for policing being devolved to an assembly that has, to date, proved itself totally incapable of taking charge of anything, is almost laughable. Less amusing, for many people from differing political and social backgrounds, is the prospect of a party like Sinn Féin gaining control of law and order.

It is clear that irrespective of what efforts the governments and others might make, while the DUP and Sinn Féin are the lead parties within their respective communities, there is no chance of a power-sharing executive being restored to Northern Ireland.