WITH A combined total of 80 seats out of 150 in the Dutch parliament, up from 61 seats, Mark Rutte’s centre-right Liberals and Diederik Samson’s centre-left Labour (PvdA) are assured, if they can agree, of the comfortable majority they need for a stable coalition. That reality following the Dutch general election – Rutte is also the one of few European leaders to survive an election during the euro crisis – and what appeared to be a surprise triumph for pro-European parties and a serious setback for the far-right populist hate figure Geert Wilders, has seen the Dutch election feted around EU capitals.
Some of that sentiment, however, reflects a degree of wishful thinking that may obscure some uncomfortable realities. To increase his party’s share of the poll, Rutte tacked sharply in a Eurosceptic direction, for example ruling out further aid for Greece, while Samson fought off a strong early challenge from the leftwing Socialists by embracing a distinctly more radical programme.
The result is that the two parties may have excelled electorally, benefiting from strong tactical voting by a quarter of the electorate, but they are further apart politically than they have been for many years. And certainly more than in the 1990s when they governed comfortably together in what was known as the “purple cabinet”. Agreeing a common programme, notably on the looming austerity budget and €13 billion cuts, may prove difficult and take time.
Both the Liberals and Labour, unlike the opposition to left and right, agree on the necessity for a series of overdue structural reforms to the Dutch economy – greater flexibility in the labour market, healthcare cost containment and reform of the housing market – but not on who should pay. It could be a bumpy ride.
Within the councils of the EU the Dutch will not be lining up with gung-ho federalisers and are likely to lean towards Germany on the bailout process. In the last TV debate, Rutte pointedly refused to sign up to the statement that “everything should be done to save the euro”.
Wilders’ Freedom Party (PVV), strongly criticised for its role in bringing down Rutte’s last coalition government over spending cuts driven by EU-imposed budget targets, lost-two fifths of its seats. The loss had less to do, unfortunately, with a shift of opinion and disillusionment at his Islamophobia and anti-immigrant posturing, and more with the prospect that his party had no chance of returning to government after the leading parties all ruled out coalition with him.