The prophets of doom were confounded. The great marshalling of forces in the North leading inexorably to a new wave of armed violence did not occur at the weekend. For this relief, much thanks. However, only the wilfully blind will not have been aware that the ingredients were there, and that the great gulf between the communities that has been deepened by the ritual Drumcree like observances of the loyal organisations still threatens to swallow the political process.
What has been won by the relative calm in Derry and other places yesterday and on Saturday is a chance for the leaders of the political parties, nationalist and unionist, to reflect on their role in creating a society which no longer lives on the edge of the abyss. In the next month, before the resumption of peace talks, they have ample time to draw the conclusions of Drumcree and Derry - the symbols now of the alternative futures facing the North, one of utter madness, the other of pragmatic if reluctant rationality.
A number of factors, including fear of endangering economic growth and the rivalry between Sinn Fein and the SDLP, played a part in damping down passions in Derry, but the city has nevertheless set an example on which to build, if there is a willingness to do so. For the Ulster Unionists and the DUP, the fact that one of the loyalist linked parties helped to mediate the talks between the Apprentice Boys and the Bogside residents offers food for thought. The two major parties of unionism did nothing to restrain the annual hell bent machinations of Orangeism and in many cases gave their enthusiastic encouragement.
As long as there is ambivalence between support for democratic norms and involvement in activities and attitudes which, based on a long and sad experience, will automatically foment violence, there can be no hope of rational political dialogue. The new emphasis on consent by Sinn Fein in relation to contentious marches is a step in the right direction, but it needs the logical concomitant of recognising consent as a general political principle. As it stands, it acknowledges the right to hold traditional demonstrations provided local communities have been consulted and have agreed to any necessary arrangements.
The formula worked to some extent in Derry, though not without the firm intervention of the Northern Secretary. It was observed by republican marchers in Belfast yesterday who deliberately avoided loyalist opposition. But at Dunloy and Bellaghy, the ugly face of intransigence and confrontation were in evidence. Only when the political parties start to find common ground on basic issues that cry out for settlement can there be any hope of submerging and eroding those age old hatreds.
Even then, there must be doubts. The carefully built structures which form the political process in the North the result of many years' effort by the Irish and British governments and by Northern politicians - have been severely disrupted by the events of the past months. The abandonment of the IRA ceasefire marked one phase of its dismantlement, but drift and a hardening of attitudes have followed, and also a corroding scepticism. Obviously, even the avoidance of major violence is not enough to create a new momentum and the necessary credibility. For that, the political leaders must show convincingly that they are ready and willing to enter constructive talks.