Senator Edward Kennedy has now made two eloquent pleas to the IRA to restore its ceasefire. The first on March 14th, just before St Patrick's Day, the second in the columns of this newspaper this morning. Yet there is gathering evidence that many of those who hold positions of influence in Sinn Fein and the IRA have come to the cynical conclusion that the movement of which they are obverse sides - can make electoral gains and conduct so called "military" activities at the same time. They feel no obligation to choose between the ballot paper and the Armalite - certainly not now.
Thus in spite of rumours and hints, there is no strong likelihood of a further IRA ceasefire at this time. As the Alliance leader, Lord Alderdice, pointed out this week, even if there is a cessation or a diminution of activity, it will be no more than tactical and it will be seen as such. The IRA knows that wanton violence in the immediate run up to the Westminster election will cost Sinn Fein votes.
But it is also recognised that there are variations of opinion within the Provisional movement. There are some who are certain that an absolute end to violence would yield a bountiful political harvest. There are others who scarcely tolerate the political tendency, regarding anything to do with politics as temporising. The appearance of masked and armed IRA men in Ardoyne on Tuesday at a Sinn Fein rally can hardly have pleased the party's election workers seeking to woo nationalist voters in other districts. Conversely, the incident itself may be viewed as a local manifestation of hostility to the moderates in Sinn Fein.
Possibly the most conclusive evidence of the Provisionals' commitment to a hard line at this point is the outright rejection of Dr Mo Mowlam's bold declaration, shortly after Senator Kennedy's first intervention, that if there is an IRA ceasefire now, a Labour government will see Sinn Fein at the talks when they resume in June. This was putting it up to the IRA and to Sinn Fein in the clearest terms. But no sooner had Dr Mowlam made her de marche than it was denounced by some Sinn Fein spokesmen while drawing only a slightly more conciliatory response from others.
Sinn Fein's strategists are going into the election hoping to persuade moderate nationalists that a vote cast for its candidates will help swing the internal balance of power away from violence towards politics. If the political wing fails to make gains in the election, according to this argument, the militarists will be further reinforced. Voters are thus invited to support the political strain of Provisionalism against the militaristic strain by voting for Sinn Fein candidates.
This is bizarre to say to least. There is some immediate and superficial logic to the argument. And it may be made in good faith by those within Sinn Fein who genuinely want to see an end to violence and who wish to see their arguments triumph within the republican family. But that logic is far outweighed by the argument put so forcefully by John Hume some weeks ago when he declared that a vote for Sinn Fein in present circumstances is a vote for the people who kill policemen and soliders, including policemen is State.
A vote for Sinn Fein other than in the context of a permanent ending of violence by the IRA, would be to yield to the dearest wishes of the Provisionals' strategists, to surrender to their most exotic dream of achieving measurable political power while retaining the capacity to murder and maim and bomb at will. Unless there is a response - and an early one - to the calls for a renewed ceasefire, any vote cast for Sinn Fein on May 1st must be viewed as a vote for violence.