The Belfast Agreement, and the very peace process itself, may have been rescued from the brink by the IRA's proposals to General John de Chastelain's decommissioning body. The missing element from last week's package of measures has now been made manifest, at least in part. But there are imponderables in the equation which should have the effect of dampening any tendency towards immediate euphoria.
The Taoiseach, Mr Ahern, was careful in his response to the brief announcement from the decommissioning body. This has been "a major step towards resolution of the arms issue", he declared. "It is a historic breakthrough but other things have to happen out of it". These "other things" must mean the actual putting of weapons completely and verifiably beyond use. What the IRA has given thus far - and not for the first time - is words, not guns. The immediate question now, in regard to the viability of the Agreement, is whether this can be sufficient for the Ulster Unionists to agree to return fully and in time to the institutions.
Those unionists who dissent from Mr Trimble's leadership and tactics point out that the IRA's "proposal" to General de Chastelain is not the actual decommissioning of arms which the First Minister demanded under threat of his resignation. Mr Jeffery Donaldson, for example, has described the IRA's proposal as a "delaying tactic". But if there has been one constant thread through the peace process, it is that there are few absolutes. What constructively-minded unionists will see in this development is a clear affirmation from the commission that it is satisfied that the IRA's proposal meets its remit "in accordance with the Governments' scheme and regulations" and that it "initiates a process that will put IRA arms completely and verifiably beyond use."
Central to the provisions on decommissioning in the Belfast Agreement is the definitive role of General de Chastelain and his colleagues. It is they - not the governments, not the security authorities, not the political parties - who are to determine progress towards achieving this "indispensible" objective of the Agreement. It is the commission which will "monitor, review and verify" the process. Unionists who support Mr Trimble and the Agreement may credibly take the stance that what appears to be good enough for General de Chastelain should be good enough for them.
The IRA's demarchΘ must be welcomed, for all that it does not yet deliver actual weapons and despite the fact that the objective of decommissioning paramilitary arms is more than a year behind the timetable signed up to in the Agreement. It undoubtedly represents a considerable achievement for Mr Gerry Adams and the Sinn FΘin leadership and confirms their continuing ability to bring the larger, so-called "republican family" with them. It remains to be seen what is to be done - in practical terms - with the IRA's arsenals. Final judgment will have to await that revelation.