The Languishing Euro

There is no sign of an early recovery in the fortunes of the euro

There is no sign of an early recovery in the fortunes of the euro. Last week the single currency hit new lows - falling below 84 US cents - and as the markets reopen today the only thing in the euro's favour is the threat of further intervention in its support by the world's main central banks. Any signs of economic weakness from the main Continental economies - or indications of continued vigour in the US - could renew pressure on the currency.

The fundamental reason for the euro's weakness has been the somewhat lacklustre performance of its main member states, which have led investors to prefer to put funds into US dollar assets, thus boosting the US currency. But poor management has also contributed. Since the currency was launched, Europe's central bankers and senior finance ministers have failed to speak with one voice about the euro. The resulting mix of messages going into the market has done much to undermine the credibility of the currency.

Last week Mr Wim Duisenberg, the president of the European Central Bank, made a particularly bad gaffe. In a newspaper interview he indicated that he saw little point in concerted intervention by the major central banks in support of the euro, if it suffered due to rising tensions in the Middle East. He then suggested that the US administration's support for the last bout of intervention - which had boosted the currency for a while - was at best half-hearted.

No doubt Mr Duisenberg was just being honest. But he has been long enough at the helm of first the Netherlands Central Bank and lately the European Central bank to know that making such comments publicly is folly. Intervention - in which central banks step into the market to support a currency - only works when it comes as a surprise. Senior central bankers should never comment on when it might happen, or who might support it. It is no exaggeration to say that Mr Duisenberg will probably not survive as European Central Bank president if he makes the same mistake again. Indeed he might be gone already but for the damage to the euro which a sudden departure might cause.

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There are, of course, more fundamental factors behind the euro's weakness. The prospects for the main EU economies remain uncertain and investors and business continue to question whether they can grow as vigorously as the US. This leads to money leaving euro assets and flowing into dollars, although the recent wobbles in the US markets may be starting to give fund managers pause for thought.

The euro's weakness also reflects the fundamental uncertainties of creating a single currency in what is not one single political area. The European Central Bank controls interest rates across the euro zone, but each individual member states has its own government which controls most other aspects of economic policy. It is thus little surprise that the different member state politicians and bankers have different views on the euro's prospects. For the sake of the currency, they might be better off buttoning their lips. But unless Mr Duisenberg demonstrates that he can do the talking successfully, they are unlikely to do so.