THE ELEMENTS of a political package to deal with the Lisbon Treaty have been put together with a decision to hold a second referendum next year. The European Council agreed yesterday to accept the Government's proposals that each EU member state can retain a commissioner if the treaty is ratified and that legal guarantees or declarations can be negotiated on neutrality, taxation, abortion and workers' rights in the coming months. Assuming it is satisfied with the outcome, the Government would then be able to present this as a genuine set of changes meeting voters' concerns in another vote, probably next October.
It is a substantial political and diplomatic achievement, bringing much-needed clarity to this exceptionally difficult question. It puts this State once again on the path towards a referendum, with a realistic prospect that the issues which most concerned those who voted against the treaty are being addressed and met. The five major questions mentioned in yesterday's EU summit conclusions will bring order to the debate, even if they do not exhaust the agenda. Those who voted No in June will have the opportunity to consider whether enough has changed for them to switch sides.
This is a perfectly acceptable democratic procedure, inherent in the idea that the treaty might be rejected because it is not good enough. The major change arising from yesterday's decision is that this State can maintain a commissioner if the treaty is ratified, as can all others. They were willing to make this concession in return for the Government's willingness to hold another referendum, even though it upsets the institutional balance and political compromises upon which Lisbon is based. Voters will face a stark choice between continuing to have a commissioner if the referendum is carried and almost certainly losing one if it is rejected and the Nice Treaty rules apply. That would certainly diminish Ireland's influence at the heart of the EU, quite aside from the political and economic marginalisation which would surely follow a second No when the other 26 member states are determined to go ahead with the treaty.
Giving legal certainty to guarantees on neutrality, taxation and abortion will involve appending them as protocols in a subsequent EU treaty, probably on Croatian accession in 2011. That would follow the Danish model used after their voters rejected the Maastricht Treaty in 1992. It is a satisfactory method to ensure national control over these issues is not eroded. Workers' rights will not be subject to the same procedure because of British objections, but are still better protected if the treaty is passed.
A second referendum presents an enormous challenge in Ireland. It comes at a time of unprecedented economic crisis and growing public discontent over budget cuts and unemployment. But this is no time for Ireland to separate itself conclusively from the European mainstream which can help us recover. It is interesting that, after the ban on pork products during the week, the first port of call for most interest groups was to seek money from Brussels.