Grim warnings about the future of the Mediterranean Sea and the coastal zones of the countries that surround it were issued yesterday by the United Nations. In just the latest of many similar reports, the UN-backed study warns that the sea and its coast simply cannot sustain development at current and projected levels, and the sort of pressure on resources that accompanies it.
The 400-page study is the latest to emanate from the so-called Blue Plan group, the 21 nations bordering the Mediterranean who came together first in 1975 to address the - even then - deteriorating environment. This latest missive, A Sustainable Future for the Mediterranean: the Blue Plan's Environment & Development Outlook, was written by 300 experts and predicts grave problems if current trends continue over the next 20 years.
They include: a rise in population from 427 million people to 524 million, with Mediterranean coastal cities increasing from 20 million to 90 million; 312 million tourists a year compared to 175 million in 2000. Coastal areas will become increasingly over-developed, with 50 per cent of the 46,000-kilometre coastline built-up by 2025. Some 63 million people will have access to less than 500 square metres of fresh water per capita per year, defined as the "shortage". Desertification in the southern and eastern Mediterranean will worsen the social and environmental damage, exacerbating rural poverty, biodiversity loss and the degradation of water resources.
As a region, the Mediterranean has been under pressure for 2,000 years. Today, only about 6 per cent of wetlands previously known to have existed in Roman times remain. Five billion migratory birds use the Rhone, Nile and Ebros deltas each year. Coastal flora is estimated at 25,000 different species but forest has been vastly reduced compared to ancient times: today, a mere 5 per cent of the Mediterranean region is covered by trees, and this mainly on the northern shore. While the sea itself covers a mere 1 per cent of the planet's marine areas, it contains 6 per cent of marine species.
But in some areas, stocks are down to 20 per cent of natural stock levels. Fresh water is becoming increasingly scarce. It is estimated by the World Wildlife Fund that by 2025 one out of every two countries in the Mediterranean will be using freshwater resources in excess of their regeneration rates. Malta and Cyprus already do so. If European prosperity continues and air travel remains relatively inexpensive, northern Europeans will continue to flock to the Mediterranean. And the contrast between life on the north shore and the south shore will be more sharply defined. It is not a recipe for a happy future.