The people of Northern Ireland go to the polls today, ahead of their southern counterparts, to cast their votes in the European elections. But irrespective of the normal party-politicking of their leaders, they must realise that this is no ordinary election to fill three seats in the European Parliament. The results will be interpreted, one way or another, as another referendum on the Belfast Agreement which held out such high hopes for the harmonious future of this island when it was democratically endorsed, North and South, over a year ago.
The basic instinct of nationalist voters, understandably enough, will be to ensure that outgoing MEP, Mr John Hume, gets a higher first preference vote than Dr Ian Paisley for the first time since 1979. It would be the crowning glory in the career of a remarkable statesman, possibly fighting his last election, in the year that he was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize for initiating the peace process.
Whether Mr Hume manages to top the poll - there were about 1,200 votes between himself and Dr Paisley five years ago - is a far less important consideration than others in the strategic significance of this election for the people of Northern Ireland. And recognising that, Mr Hume and the SDLP are to be commended for declining to ask voters to give their second preferences to Sinn Fein.
The DUP leader, Dr Paisley, will be anxious to retain his record as the leading poll-topper since the first European elections 20 years ago. It is an interesting, albeit dangerous, fact that his personal vote of 29.2 per cent in 1994 approximates the 29 per cent vote among unionists against the Belfast Agreement in last year's referendum.
The main focus in the elections, however, will centre on the performance of the outgoing Ulster Unionist Party MEP, Mr Jim Nicholson. The size of his vote will have a major impact on Mr David Trimble's leadership and the intensive negotiations, to follow next week, to meet the deadline of June 30th for the setting up of the Executive and the North/South structures.
The fate of Sinn Fein's chairman, Mr Mitchel McLaughlin, will be watched with considerable interest in the poll. The party believes that the controversy and pain surrounding the bodies of "the disappeared" will not cost it votes. It remains to be seen also, whether the new politics promised by the Belfast Agreement will bring about a transfer of votes across the two communities on this occasion.
The important figures will be the two cumulative totals when the votes are counted on Monday. How Mr Hume, Mr Nicholson, Mr McLaughlin, Mr Sean Neeson of the Alliance Party and Mr David Irvine of the PUP fare against Dr Paisley and Mr Robert McCartney of the UK Unionist Party, the pro and anti-agreement parties respectively.
A vote for candidates who support the Belfast Agreement is, once again, a vote for the future of Northern Ireland. It is the necessary mandate to Northern leaders at this critical time, to overcome the considerable obstacles still standing in the way of full implementation of the Belfast Agreement.