Another deadline is approaching in Northern Ireland where the future of the Belfast Agreement is primarily dependant on the IRA honouring its obligation to the people of this island to put arms independently and verifiably beyond use in a demonstrable way. There are six more days to go to break the deadlock surrounding decommissioning, policing, demilitarisation and the stability of the institutions. A decision will have to be taken by the Northern Ireland Secretary, Dr John Reid, next Sunday to suspend the political institutions, put the process into review or hold new elections to the Assembly if no progress can be made.
A new series of negotiations will be put in place this week in a last-ditch effort to broker agreement between the Ulster Unionist Party and Sinn FΘin. The last week was lost because of the engagement of the two governments in the fall-out from the barbaric attacks by terrorists in New York and Washington. The Minister for Foreign Affairs, Mr Cowen, will meet Sinn FΘin today to try to persuade the party to sign up to the new police service. The British Prime Minister, Mr Blair, has signalled his intention to press the unionists to accept any demonstrable moves on decommissioning.
There was little hope a week ago that Sinn FΘin would be prepared to persuade the IRA to put its proposal of a method to put arms beyond use back on the table. There was no progress made in the meeting between Mr Ahern and Mr Adams in Government Buildings last Tuesday. It was interrupted, late into the meeting, by the Taoiseach's private secretary bearing the news of the air attacks in New York. But the world has changed utterly in its attitude to terrorism - paramilitarism and those who support it - in a week.
Sinn FΘin would do well to remember that the Republican movement is looking at a new political landscape at home and abroad following the atrocities in the United States. President Bush spoke about terrorism for ten minutes of his half-hour meeting with the Taoiseach last March. There will be little indulgence of the twin-tactics of the bullet and the ballot box - be it in Columbia, the North, or anywhere else in the world - from that quarter. The British Prime Minister, Mr Blair, has emerged as President Bush's greatest ally in the international war against terrorism and will have little time for the affairs of Northern Ireland in coming weeks. The Minister for Foreign Affairs will become head of the Security Council of the United Nations at the end of the month.
The coincidence of interests born out of the ashes of such brutal atrocities brings a new dimension to the peace process. It presents a new challenge to the Republican movement. There is a compelling opportunity now to demonstrate that terrorism is being left behind. It can be done without loss of face. Sinn FΘin must persuade the IRA, as a first step, to restore its commitment to the Independent International Body on Decommissioning, demonstrate it visibly, and sign up to the new police service. Any twin-track toying with terrorism will not be contemplated by Mr Bush or Mr Blair in the new world order. The alternative to the full implementation of the Belfast Agreement is outside the democratic pale now.