THE POLITICAL landscape of Northern Ireland has been transformed by the results of the Westminster elections, even if the precise nature of that new geography has yet to be defined. The defeat of three out of six party leaders reflect the seismic nature of the occasion. And yet the overall message from the electorate is one of support for devolution and the normalisation of daily life through the Assembly and power-sharing executive.
As the possibility of Northern politicians playing a pivotal role in the formation of the next British government are evaporating, speculation has turned to the prospect of a merger between the Democratic Unionist Party and the Ulster Unionist Party in order to prevent Sinn Féin becoming the largest party in next year’s Assembly elections. Given the bruising nature of the recent contest and uncertainty concerning the leadership of both parties, such conjecture is premature.
The strong showing of Gerry Adams in West Belfast and of Sinn Féin generally would suggest no early change in the leadership of that party as it gears up for the Northern elections. The SDLP held its three seats and its new leader Margaret Richie acquitted herself well. The party’s support base has, however, continued to erode and it will take hard work and a deal of luck to reverse that trend.
The rejection of Peter Robinson by the electorate of East Belfast was a huge shock. The DUP leader and First Minister had been regarded as “a sure thing”. But recent financial controversies and family difficulties caused his vote to fall by a massive 20 per cent. Elsewhere, all members of his party saw their votes diminish. But, where it really counted, in head-to head confrontations with the leader of the UUP Reg Empey and with Jim Allister of the Traditional Unionist Party, DUP candidates came through strongly. Mr Allister had campaigned aggressively against devolution and power-sharing with Sinn Féin. Mr Empey had opposed the transfer of policing and justice powers and formed a pact with the British Conservative Party.
The defeat of both strands of unionism in favour of progressive politics and the development of power-sharing structures represent the most significant aspect of the elections. In that regard, Mr Robinson’s decision to remain on as First Minister and to continue his work in the Assembly will provide necessary reassurance and was rightly welcomed by the Taoiseach Brian Cowen.
Perhaps the most heartening development was the emphasis placed by the major parties on the economy and the need for jobs and political stability. The routing of Mr Allister and his party’s candidates made it clear that the unionist electorate has no appetite for a return to the sterility of a violent past. A similar message to dissident republicans could be taken from an increase in the Sinn Féin vote. The election of Alliance deputy leader Naomi Long in East Belfast has strengthened the political middle ground, following the appointment of David Ford as Justice Minister in the Executive.