The Progressive Democrats have a difficult task trying to invent themselves afresh for niche voters after 10 years in office. Their principal electoral motifs have been lower taxes, more effective competition and creating a better framework for private initiative. These issues must now be tested against their achievements in government.
Inevitably emphasis has changed over that time - and notably since the departure of their ideological soulmate, Mr Charlie McCreevy, for Brussels. Fianna Fail's turn towards greater social cohesion diverges from the PD approach, but is in tune with popular opinion.
To meet these changed circumstances, the PDs went back to basics at their annual conference in Limerick at the weekend. They announced a dramatic €5 billion package of tax cuts aimed specifically at capturing the votes of middle class families throughout the State. By so doing, they have ensured that they alone, among the political parties, will be offering further substantial income tax cuts as the price of their participation in the next coalition government. How that policy can be reconciled with Fianna Fail's belief that there is no further scope for major tax cuts is a debate for another day.
In setting out the PD stall, Tánaiste Mary Harney, called for an end to the notion that tax cutting was over and the political debate was solely about the provision of services. That philosophy is already sharply contested by the smaller parties in the alternative government, the Labour Party and the Green Party. The fault line is now identified - the differing perspectives on the prospects of the Celtic Tiger economy.
All of the tax promises in the world, however, will not prevent the PDs from being called to account for their stewardship of the Health and Justice portfolios over the last five years. Ms Harney took a brave decision to take the Health brief. The sector is at the heart of contemporary politics and there are undoubtedly major bonuses for the minister and the party capable of delivering a better service. She has had precious little time to make a real difference. It may be different by the time the election comes, but it is a risky business indeed. Mr Michael McDowell has been one of the most active and colourful Ministers in this Government, but voters will evaluate his performance with reference to a general climate of security rather than his detailed legislative record.
The president of the PDs, Mr McDowell, has a flair for political innovation, as was seen in his warning in 2002 against trusting Fianna Fáil in a one-party Government, or in his recent insistence that the smaller party can dictate policy and political direction by providing the meat in the coalition sandwich. The battleground for the next election is being set. Fine Gael has yet to advance its philosophy. But, following the PD conference, it seems clear that voters will be asked to decide whether to opt for self-centred base instincts on personal taxation or to return to a value system which ensures ample public services for all.