The Northern Ireland peace process is secure, whatever the outcome of the talks in Belfast today. The seismic changes have already occurred. It is only the loose ends that remain untidily around, writes Vincent Browne.
Just compare now with what was happening in Northern Ireland 15 years ago.
On January 5th, 1989, Harry Keys, a former member of the RUC reserve, was in a car with his girlfriend outside her home at Ballintra, Co Donegal. A burst of gunfire shattered the windscreen. Two gunmen ordered the girlfriend out of the car, she ran screaming towards her house seeking help. They shot Harry Keys 23 times, several shots fired at point blank range.
On February 12th, Pat Finucane, a solicitor who frequently represented republicans in criminal cases, was at home with his family eating a Sunday meal. Members of the UDA broke down the front door with sledge hammers and on entering the house started firing immediately. Pat Finucane was shot 14 times and died at the scene.
On March 7th, three civilian Protestants, Leslie Dallas, Ernest Rankin and Austin Nelson, were shot dead in Croagh, Co Tyrone by the IRA. It was reported the gunmen cheered as they drove off.
On March 20th, two RUC officers, Harry Breen and Rob Buchanon were shot dead by the IRA, near Jonesborough, Co Armagh, as they returned from a security meeting with gardaí in Dundalk.
On June 27th, 1989, David Black, a member of the RUC reserve, was killed by an IRA booby-trap bomb placed under his car, shortly after he left his home at Strabane, Co Tyrone.
On May 4th, Stephen McGonigle, a member of the British army, was killed by an IRA explosive device near Crossmaglen, Co Armagh.
On August 9th, Seamus Duffy, aged 15, was killed by a plastic bullet, fired by the RUC during rioting, in the Oldpark area of Belfast.
On August 2nd, Patrick McKenna, was shot 11 times by the UVF on Crumlin Road, Belfast. A few minutes later, an undercover British soldier shot dead one of Patrick McKenna's attackers, Brian Robinson. His mother, Margaret Robinson, suffered a heart attack and died after hearing what had happened to her son.
On September 22nd, ten members of the Royal Marines were killed by the IRA in an explosion at the school of music in Deal, Kent. An 11th victim died in October.
In all 81 people were killed in 1989 because of the conflict in Northern Ireland. Of those killed 9 were RUC officers, 24 soldiers, 2 members of the UDR, three republican paramilitaries, three loyalist paramilitaries, and 32 civilians.
And 1989 was a "good" year with only 81 people killed. The previous year 105 lost their lives, two years later 102. All in all 3,636 people lost their lives in the Northern conflict between 1966 and 1999. But since the IRA ceasefire of August 1994 the situation has been transformed. In that year 69 people were killed, the following year nine. Fifty seven people were killed in 1998, largely accounted for by the Omagh outrage. (All of the above information is taken from Lost Lives by David McKittrick, Seamus Kelters, Brian Feeney and Chris Thornton).
Those of us who lived through those years of conflict in Northern Ireland will remember the daily news bulletins laced with reports of murders, attempted murders, shootings, explosions, and riots. How transformed is Northern Ireland nowadays. Sure, there are instances of violence but they are occasional.
Yes there is an obscenity in republicans claiming credit for this, credit for ceasing to murder people. But the reality is that the transformation has occurred since that IRA ceasefire and that has allowed the development of a peace process, which is on the verge of settling the Northern Ireland conflict finally.
Look at what has happened.
There is an agreement between all the parties in Northern Ireland that a power-sharing administration, involving unionists with nationalists and republicans, will come into being and remain in being, given the tying of those loose ends; we are on the verge of an agreement on policing which alone would signal the end of the conflict; nationalist Ireland has abandoned nationalism in agreeing that the constitutional position of Northern Ireland is to be determined by the people of Northern Ireland (not by the people of Ireland as a whole); the new arrangements will build in guarantees of fairness and respect for human rights. So we have come a very long way and delays in completing the final settlement of the conflict should not be dismaying.
The obstacles now are merely symbolic, although in Northern Ireland symbolism can rarely be dismissed as "merely". The demand by Ian Paisley for photographic evidence of decommissioning is just politicking. How could photographs confirm that all IRA weapons had been decommissioned? Indeed how could we ever know that all IRA weapons had been decommissioned? And another thought: do we really want the total decommissioning of IRA arms, or at least those under the control of the leadership? What "disciplinary" muscle would they have then with dissident elements? Whatever the outcome of today's talks, there are reasons for celebration and optimism.