The electorate is rethinking its government formation options in the aftermath of evidence given to the McCracken Tribunal in connection with payments made by Mr Ben Dunne to politicians and to political parties. Core support for Fine Gael has fallen by three points and for Fianna Vail by one point, according to the latest Irish Times/MRBI opinion poll, while the "undecided" category of voters has grown by two points to 17 per cent.
In a five week period marked by the McCracken Tribunal and the party conferences of Labour, Fianna Fail and Democratic Left, the pendulum of public favour has swung back towards the opposition parties. It has given the coalition government option of Fianna Fail and the Progressive Democrats a 12 point lead over the existing arrangement of Fine Gael, the Labour Party and Democratic Left, and it has wiped out all of the gains made by the Government since last January. The fact that four out of every five voters who recently deserted the Rainbow option have not transferred their allegiance to the opposition parties will be of some comfort to the Government. But that consolation cannot disguise the magnitude of the political task that lies ahead if it wishes to be returned to office.
The Taoiseach, Mr Bruton, and Fine Gael have suffered gravely in terms of falling satisfaction ratings and in lost political support. From a position where the party and its leader enjoyed a fair, following wind, in the last opinion poll taken at the end of March, they now have serious credibility problems with the public. A conflict between the evidence given by Mr Bruton to the Beef Tribunal in 1992 and recently to the McCracken Tribunal, about the extent of his involvement in Fine Gael's fundraising activities, has not been resolved. And the sight of a succession of Fine Gael Ministers attending Dublin Castle to give evidence concerning Mr Dunne's donations has clearly damaged the party's image.
By contrast, Fianna Fail has held its March support level - in spite of the publicity accorded to the former party leader, Mr Charles Haughey, but with the help of its ard fheis and Mr Bertie Ahern's personal satisfaction rating rose by a single point. The only parties to show an increase in their levels of support have been the Labour Party and the Green Party, but the single point gained is well within the margin of error. Support for the Progressive Democrats and Democratic Left remained static, while that for Fine Gael fell by four points.
There is a general expectation at Leinster House that the Dail will be dissolved next week, with polling to take place on June 6th. A formal decision has yet to be taken by the three party leaders, although the election campaign is effectively under way. It would be shortsighted in the extreme if the results of this opinion poll were to cause the election to be postponed until the autumn. Far too many interest groups are already pressurising the Government for special awards in relation to pay, the economy and services. A further five months of political turbulence and uncertainty would be bad for the country and for the economy. And it might not provide a different electoral result. The Government should take the necessary bold step, and let the votes fall where they may.