The people had much to say

The people have spoken in the highest poll in years and they had much to say

The people have spoken in the highest poll in years and they had much to say. They passed the controversial citizenship referendum overwhelmingly. They inflicted a damaging mid-term blow to Fianna Fáil and its seven-year coalition with the Progressive Democrats. They changed the balance of power within the alternative government with the resurgence in Fine Gael. They gave Sinn Féin a significant breakthrough. And they probably laid the groundwork for national politics for the next decade.

The results are still being counted, at the time of writing, but it is fair to say that there is a mixed, even conflicting, voting pattern emerging. The Minister for Justice, Mr McDowell, correctly tapped into the public mood on citizenship. The strategy to hold the referendum alongside the local elections probably led to the exceptional increase in turn-out. It is also conceivable those extra 10 per cent or so voted against the Government.

The outcome of the local elections is disastrous for Fianna Fáil. The party is losing more seats than it had expected. Its first preference vote is its lowest since the 1920s. The drop could be as high as 7 percentage points since 1999. There is speculation that Mr Gerard Collins could lose his European seat in Munster. And the Progressive Democrats, the junior coalition partner, have also failed to make the gains they had expected at local level.

The biggest advance in the elections, however, is the increase in first preference votes for Sinn Féin and the doubling, at least, of its number of seats. It will come as some surprise to strategists in all parties that Sinn Féin's increase in votes came at the expense of Fianna Fáil rather than the Labour Party or other groups on the left. How the new gains made by Sinn Féin in this State - and, apparently, in Northern Ireland where the counting begins today - will impact on the Northern Ireland political process is another matter.

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Fine Gael has performed well in the local and the European elections compared to the damage it suffered at the polls two years ago. The first preference vote for the party restores the prospect of a credible alternative being put to the people in the next general election. The resurgence in Fine Gael, coupled with the Dublin gains made by the Labour Party and, at local level, the Green Party, will revitalise the opposition's performance in the Dáil.

It seems fair to say that these elections could mark a watershed. The dual mandate has ended, so local politics will provide many of the Dáil candidates for the future. Fianna Fáil has suffered an historic drop in first preference support. Fine Gael has lived to fight another day and to offer a more realistic choice of an alternative government. The Labour Party is the biggest on Dublin City Council.There is no ceiling yet, north or south, on the number who will vote for Sinn Féin while it supports the IRA. There is much to analyse in what the people had to say.