There are worrying signs that the leader of the Democratic Unionist Party, the Rev Ian Paisley, may not be prepared to make the political accommodations necessary to allow for the establishment of a power-sharing executive in Northern Ireland by November 24th. But nothing is certain in the present volatile situation. A great deal of posturing and demand-making will occur over the coming months as both Dr Paisley and the Sinn Féin leader, Gerry Adams, seek to encourage and reassure their supporters.
In the meantime, the recall of Assembly members to Stormont today is likely to provide a political antidote to the tensions of the marching season and a useful forum for the discussion of administrative issues.
The series of interviews conducted by our London Editor, Frank Millar, with the main participants has served to identify the difficulties that remain to be surmounted. In that regard, the position adopted by Dr Paisley on a range of issues will have caused considerable concern to the two governments, particularly in relation to his demands for a recasting of the Belfast Agreement.
The Minister for Foreign Affairs, Dermot Ahern, and the Northern Ireland Secretary, Peter Hain, have encouraged political movement, particularly in relation to Sinn Féin's acceptance of policing, while not being prescriptive about it. And Mr Adams acknowledged the issue will have to be resolved in the short term. Dr Paisley set the bar higher for republicans, however, by also insisting that "collective responsibility" must operate within a Northern executive and that the co-equal positions of First Minister and Deputy First Minister should no longer apply. In his own words, the DUP leader was not prepared to operate the Belfast Agreement as it stood. He intended "to sit on and sit tight I am not interested in office".
The British government has threatened to suspend the Assembly and stop all pay to those involved should the parties fail to form an executive by the November deadline. The public would not tolerate millions of pounds being wasted, Mr Hain said. The threat of suspension will concentrate minds within the political parties in the months ahead. And various interest groups are likely to exert pressure for a settlement because of the economic and democratic costs attached to political failure. In that regard, business leaders are due to address the Assembly tomorrow on the benefits devolved government would bring to the economy.
In spite of Dr Paisley's obvious reluctance to share power with Sinn Féin, he must recognise that an agreed policing system is the key to social progress. The urgency of the issue is indisputable. As the Independent Monitoring Commission reported last month, 95 per cent of armed crime now involves loyalist paramilitaries. Failure to form an executive would probably increase the number of republican dissidents. And this is only one of the many reasons for wishing that today's return to Stormont will bear political fruit in time.