Mr George Tenet's resignation as head of the US Central Intelligence Agency yesterday confirms the profound disarray in the Bush administration's policy on Iraq, even if it is difficult to interpret in terms of the Byzantine factionalism involved.
He could well be a scapegoat for powerful figures in the administration who have been more forceful supporters of the war. They are now facing an investigation on whether their chief source of intelligence on Iraq, Mr Ahmed Chalabi, was acting on behalf of Iran, arising from astonishing allegations that he was responsible for letting Iran know the US had broken their intelligence codes. The CIA has opposed the neo-conservative wing of the administration, Mr Chalabi's main protagonists, aligning itself more with conservative realists and the State Department who have been more satisfied with the shape of the interim Iraqi government appointed this week.
But Mr Tenet supported the central thrust of the intelligence behind the false belief that Saddam Hussein had weapons of mass destruction ready for deployment and that this was sufficient reason to go to war against him. On this and several other major failings he is culpable - as will probably be underlined in forthcoming investigations by the independent commission investigating the September 11th 2001 attacks on New York and Washington and the Senate Intelligence Committee's reports on whether Iraq had indeed such weapons.
The news comes just ahead of President Bush's visit to Europe this weekend, during which he is canvassing support for the US-British resolution on Iraq at the UN Security Council. Despite a definite shift towards a more independent role for the interim Iraqi government, notably on control of coalition military forces, there is little sign that the French or German governments are willing to participate militarily in Iraq, or ready to support this resolution. They may find it more difficult to interpret the precise course of US policy after Mr Tenet's resignation, or to disentangle it from political gyrations in a US presidential election year.
One way or another, the Bush administration's policy on Iraq is contradictory and confused and doing more and more damage to the international reputation and credibility of the United States. Mr Tenet is responsible for some of its most egregious misjudgments, for which he is widely expected to be publicly pilloried in these forthcoming reports. His departure may deflect attention from political responsibility for them. Such a time-honoured scapegoating of a leading official is probably the best explanation for his departure.