The political difficulties of Taoiseach Bertie Ahern have intensified in recent months as a growing section of the electorate decides he has further questions to answer about his personal finances and tax liabilities.
Only a majority of Fianna Fáil voters believes he should continue in office. These are worrying and divisive trends at a time when Coalition Ministers should be fully focused on coping with economic and social problems, not to mention the challenge of the referendum on the Lisbon Treaty currently scheduled for May.
It is clear from the findings of the latest Irish Times/TNS mrbi opinion poll that the Taoiseach's credibility is suffering long-term damage. Fewer than one in seven voters now believe he provided forthright answers about his financial affairs, a further drop since last October. The public's attention is focused intensely on the incongruity and inconsistencies of Mr Ahern's financial affairs. Politics being the blood sport that it is in Ireland, they are the talk of every townland. Majorities within both the Green Party and the Progressive Democrats believe he should resign.
But, as always within Fianna Fáil, support for the leader remains publicly vibrant. Mr Ahern remains more popular than his chosen successor, Tánaiste and Minister for Finance Brian Cowen. The extent to which Fianna Fáil supporters have rallied to his side, notwithstanding their concerns about his financial affairs, should be reassuring to him. Some two-thirds of those questioned would like to see him lead the party into the next general election.
The Taoiseach's credibility problems have been reflected in falling levels of public confidence in Government and in his own personal ratings. But support for Fianna Fáil has increased marginally, as has that for Sinn Féin and the Green Party. There has been little significant change elsewhere, except in the Labour Party, while Eamon Gilmore, Gerry Adams and John Gormley will be reassured by growth in their personal ratings.
Holiday periods traditionally provide a breathing space for ministers and parties in government. Support levels tend to increase while the Dáil is not in session because opposition parties are denied ready access to publicity. On this occasion, however, the Government has failed to receive a favourable bounce after a fairly benign Budget.
This is not an unprecedented situation. A downturn in the economy following the 2002 general election had an even more dramatic impact on support for Mr Ahern and for the government. There is, however, a major difference on this occasion. Fine Gael has the potential to become a powerful force in this Dáil. The PDs, formerly the weathervane in these situations, are decimated.The Green Party, the so-called moral conscience of the environment, is wilfully ignoring the political environment around it. All parties are looking to next year's local elections as a launching pad for new candidates. The political landscape can be expected to change dramatically.