The dominant position of Mr Pat Rabbitte in the succession stakes in the Labour Party may come as a surprise to some of its members. He is more popular than his nearest rival, Mr Brendan Howlin, in most categories, according to the latest Irish Times/MRBI opinion published today.
At a national level, some 30 per cent of voters would like to see Mr Rabbitte as the new leader, compared to 21 per cent for Mr Howlin. And, more surprisingly given the recent amalgamation of Democratic Left with the Labour Party, Mr Rabbitte has a lead of 11 percentage points over his nearest opponent among party supporters.
An opinion poll, as always, is but a snapshot in time. In this case, it was conducted last Monday and Tuesday, as the campaign of public meetings got under way. The Labour Party is in the throes of a leadership election involving all paid-up party members and the real result will not be known until the votes are counted on October 25th.
It will be the first occasion on which an Irish party has granted ordinary members the power to choose their parliamentary leader, rather than have such decisions taken by members of the Dáil and Seanad. The shift towards the empowerment of party membership as a means of invigorating the organisation is a positive development.
Four candidates have declared for the position following the decision by Mr Ruairi Quinn to step down in the aftermath of a poor general election result. A further four have announced their candidature for the post of deputy leader. The number of those challenging for the top job reflects not just the ambitions of the candidates themselves but the broad spread of abilities within the parliamentary party, where a sizeable percentage have ministerial experience.
If Labour is to succeed in its long-term ambition to replace Fine Gael as the second party in Irish politics, it will require a charismatic leader who brings not just drive, ability and ambition to the job, but good luck, organisational skills and sound judgment. The general election showed both the Green Party and Sinn Féin attracting Labour support. If that pattern is to be broken, the new leader must adopt a more combative, radical approach to social and economic issues as well as offering a clear alternative to Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael.
The poll finding that contenders who hailed from Democratic Left are seen as realistic challengers for the leadership of the Labour Party suggests that the merger of three years ago has been a success. Any new leader will enjoy a wind of opportunity at their back as the Government parties abandon their pre-election postures and seek to bring public spending under control.
A disparate electorate will determine the short-term success and the future relevance of the Labour Party for some time to come.