Tactics and strategy have been confusingly combined in the decisive rejection of the latest proposal that Switzerland should start negotiations to join the European Union. Sunday's referendum was triggered when a group of young EU enthusiasts gathered sufficient signatures to hold it. They hoped it would force the federal government to speed up its strategy of opening negotiations within the next five years and to join by 2010. Tactically, their initiative has badly misfired by giving those opposed the opportunity to campaign against joining in principle, potentially jeopardising the whole government strategy. The result amply justifies the anti-EU case, with 76.7 per cent voting against in a relatively high poll. It included majorities in normally favourable French-speaking cantons, even in Berne. Many observers say the referendum was in retrospect singularly badly timed for those in favour of the EU. Economically Switzerland is buoyant, with very low unemployment, interest rates and inflation. The Swiss franc is strong against the euro. As yet there are few signs of the country being disadvantaged by staying outside the regional bloc. That was confirmed by last year's referendum vote in favour of pragmatic agreements reached with the EU in 1998, covering such issues as transport and the movement of labour.
The federal government intends to continue such negotiations on fraud, tax savings and the Schengen arrangements on border controls and immigration over coming years, even though it will now have to rethink its strategy of linking them to a decision on accession. On this occasion, the economic arguments were bolstered by a strong showing for the vehemently anti-EU coalition led by the billionaire businessman, Mr Christoph Blocher and his right-wing populist People's Party. His programme contains echoes of Mr Jorg Haider's Freedom Party in neighbouring Austria, and appeals to a rather similar constituency in Switzerland. On this occasion he was able to broaden its appeal by emphasising the need to defend Switzerland's prosperity, independence, direct democracy and armed neutrality from being compromised by EU membership.
Several recent confrontations with EU representatives on fraud and taxation may have played a part in antagonising normally sympathetic Swiss voters - yet another example of unfortunate timing, from the federal government's point of view. Many voices were heard yesterday saying this result means Swiss membership of the EU is put off for at least a decade. That perspective could change if adverse economic or political circumstances emerge in coming years. For the moment, this referendum is a powerful confirmation of the case for not jumping your fences until you come to them.