The CINEMA of the 1950s gave us a Ruritanian State by the name of the Duchy of Grand Fenwick, the “smallest and least progressive country in the world” whose rulers decided that global super-powers would pay it a lot more attention if it made a move into space technology. A rocket was duly fired towards the moon.
It would be tempting to equate the antics of the bankrupt and bizarre regime of North Korea’s Kim Jong Il with a comedy film. But unfortunately last Sunday’s rocket launch marks a disturbing escalation of the risk of nuclear proliferation.
North Korea maintains that the rocket’s payload was an experimental communications satellite, that the device was launched successfully and that it is busy broadcasting “immortal revolutionary paeans” to Kim Jong Il and his father. A condemnatory United States is adamant that no satellite entered orbit and regards North Korea’s action as another step in its march towards nuclear power status: a rocket which can carry a satellite can be adapted relatively easily to transport a nuclear warhead.
The rocket launch violates UN Security Council resolution 1718 which was passed three years ago. South Korea, which has most to fear, condemned the action as “a reckless act” while Japan - which the rocket flew over - said it was “extremely provocative”. But North Korea is not just interested in impressing its neighbours; the timing of the launch to coincide directly with the Nato summit can hardly be accidental.
President Obama’s dream of a world without nuclear weapons is not going to be realised. However, a more attainable scenario would see countries which have stockpiles of nuclear weapons reducing them considerably in parallel with greater efforts to ensure that no additional countries acquire them.
There is little likelihood of North Korea starting a nuclear conflict – though the very idea that it might be able to is deeply injurious to peace and stability in the region. Ostracism will achieve nothing. Its leadership may be open again to the kind of bribery that President Bush indulged them with but when eaten bread is forgotten, there is every chance the country’s nuclear planning will resume. Nor in the longterm will aid from Japan and South Korea prove persuasive, and reactions from those countries suggest that aid is the last thing on their mind.
The key player will be China which demonstrated its international significance at the G20 last week. It has defended North Korea in the past but is not impressed with its nuclear ambitions. It - and to a lesser extent Russia - have the clout to bring sense to North Korea and to get it into meaningful talks. Then there is Iran where some in power would barely hesitate to send nuclear missiles to Israel if they possessed them to do so. Proliferation is an enormous threat to world peace. If rogue states can acquire nuclear capability, then it is only a matter of time before terrorist groups can do likewise. Mr Obama has promised a world summit on nuclear security. It cannot come too quickly.