The European Union faces a fateful decision this year on its future relations with Turkey. Its political leaders must decide in December whether to open negotiations without delay on Turkish membership of the EU, a commitment agreed in 1999.
The issue itself goes back to 1963. Opening talks is no guarantee that they would conclude successfully or soon, but the negotiations would lead undoubtedly to acceptance of Turkey's right in principle to join the EU. That is why there is once again growing resistance to the prospect from those who believe Turkey does not share cultural or civilisational values with Europe, cannot be absorbed by the existing political structures of the EU, is incapable of adapting politically to membership and would undermine it economically.
Behind such concerns there is an unstated conviction that Turkey's Islamic culture is incompatible with Europe's religious or secular values. This is the dilemma. The timing of the proposed legislation to penalise adultery as part of a comprehensive new penal code just ahead of the important European Commission report on Turkey's preparedness for membership, due on October 6th, seems to confirm this in the eyes not just of liberals and feminists, but democrats who suspect the basic project of Turkish membership.
The reforms proposed in the Turkish penal code are sweeping. Significantly, they have been put through largely by the moderate Islamist Justice and Development Party (AKP) led by the prime minister, Mr Erdogan, over the last two years. It sees reform as a way to secure its own position against the secular Turkish establishment and military; but critics say this is a screen obscuring a desire to introduce Islamic law by the back door.
The reforms radically alter Turkey's legal and political culture. The central constitutional role of the military has been reduced and brought into line with common European practice. The death penalty has been removed, safeguards against torture introduced, the state security courts abolished and the state of emergency in the southeastern Kurdish part of the country lifted. Freedom of political and religious expression has been legally guaranteed and restrictions against minority languages have been substantially eased. Gender equality is reinforced.
The question remains. Are these last minute reforms to influence the EU decision? Will they be implemented? Last week, the government sought an end to the adultery issue by replacing the word "adultery" with "unfaithfulness". Not surprisingly, the opposition was unimpressed and the entire penal code bill was hurriedly "withdrawn". There matters rest.
Mr Erdogan must assert his authority and find a political consensus to remove the adultery clause totally if he is to remain credible as a broker of reform and a champion of EU membership. This issue distorts a major issue on which Ireland has not had a debate.