A little done, lots to do for a Government which has finally halted its opinion poll freefall, writes Mark Brennock
The collapse in support for the Government, Taoiseach and Fianna Fáil in the 12 months after the May 2002 general election was influenced by the belief that the Coalition parties hid the true state of the economy from voters in order to get re-elected.
The September 2002 Irish Times/TNS mrbi poll reflected this initial slump, with three successive polls showing a further slow, steady decline.
The fifth poll since that election - in September 2003 - took place in the immediate aftermath of Government mishandling of the Laffoy inquiry into child abuse. It produced yet further record lows for the Government, the Taoiseach and Fianna Fáil.
Today's results are of a poll taken during a relatively quiet political period. There has been no unexpected cock-up, and the Taoiseach and his Ministers have been seen as working well to handle a difficult EU presidency agenda. More importantly, after a series of record lows the decline had to stop at some point.
And it has. The steady erosion of support for the Government in the 18 months since the May 2002 general election has finally been halted. Last September satisfaction with the Government hit its lowest point since Irish Times polls began over 20 years ago. Just 27 per cent expressed satisfaction with the Coalition, while 67 per cent were dissatisfied.
That this latest result showing 55 per cent dissatisfied with the Government and just 38 per cent satisfied represents a significant recovery and shows just how bad things had become.
This is the highest satisfaction rating the Government has scored since the election, but it remains lower than any rating achieved during the 1997-2002 period, even at the height of the controversy over the proposed appointment of the former Supreme Court judge, Hugh O'Flaherty, to the European Investment Bank.
Fianna Fáil's support figure has also gone in the right direction. But while it is up three points from the record low of 30 per cent scored last September, 33 per cent is still lower than the party ever registered in its history until February 2003. And the PDs' loss of two points almost mirrors Fianna Fail's gain.
The Taoiseach has seen his satisfaction rating rise 11 points to 47 per cent, with an equal percentage now dissatisfied. This is his highest rating since September 2002, but again is lower than anything he achieved as Taoiseach before then.
So with four months before local and European elections, Fianna Fáil will take some heart from the reversal of an 18-month trend. But on this showing the party would still stand to lose a substantial number of local authority seats.
Fine Gael's loss of one percentage point to 21 per cent support is statistically insignificant. What is deeply worrying for the main opposition party, however, is that it shows no sign whatsoever of recovery from its disastrous May 2002 general election showing.
Then the party achieved 22 per cent of the national vote. In TNS mrbi polls since it rose briefly to 23 per cent in September 2002 but has remained between 19 per cent and 22 per cent in each survey since.
Its leader, Enda Kenny, sees his personal satisfaction rating rise a statistically insignificant two points to 31 per cent, with a greater number - 37 per cent - dissatisfied with his performance.
Labour has suffered its second consecutive decline since hitting 22 per cent last May in the immediate aftermath of Pat Rabbitte's first party conference as leader. At 17 per cent the party remains considerably above its 11 per cent general election performance. Pat Rabbitte has had a steady and good approval rating since his election as leader in 2002 and has the second-highest rating of the party leaders (behind Gerry Adams) at 48 per cent.
The fundamental problem he faces is that the alternative government involving Fine Gael to which he has so strongly committed his party needs a substantial Fine Gael recovery to become viable. Adding up the first-preference votes indicated by today's poll results, this alternative combination would receive 43 per cent of the first-preference vote compared to just 36 per cent for the Fianna Fáil-PD Coalition.
However, totting these percentages does not give an accurate predictor of an election result. A Fine Gael-Labour-Green Party combination would require a 25-seat advance to form a government.
On its present showing Labour would gain a significant number of seats in a general election, but Fine Gael would not achieve any of the recovery required to make such a government viable. All of Labour's chances of re-entering Government appear to be bet on a fairly long-odds choice.
Mr Rabbitte's consolation is that there is a long way to go before the electorate will be asked to make that choice. Supporters of his strategy believe that if the Fine Gael-Labour alternative is offered unambiguously to voters before the next general election, support for it will rise substantially.
The Green Party has a modest rise in support, with its leader, Trevor Sargent, also getting a higher approval rating than in last September.
Sinn Féin's rise from 10 to 12 per cent is not hugely significant in isolation. But it appears to be part of a steady increase in political significance for the party. From 1997 to 2002 it registered 4-7 per cent in polls, achieving 6.5 per cent of the national vote in the May 2002 general election.
Since then it has consistently showed 9 per cent support in the Irish Times/TNS mrbi poll series, rising to 10 per cent last September and 12 per cent now. If it sustains this it is set to increase its Dáil seats to double figures. The day when the established parties of government will have to consider seriously whether Sinn Féin is an acceptable coalition partner is looming.
Meanwhile, the current Government parties can begin to hope that nothing lasts for ever. The poll suggests that the post-election anger over the voters' sense of having been hoodwinked is fading. The Taoiseach's stock is rising somewhat, and a successful EU presidency could bring him higher again.
The early-summer Cabinet reshuffle could produce something of a new look Government. The completion of the seemingly interminable Luas, Dublin port tunnel and State-wide road projects may create a sense that the Government is achieving things.
Add to this the tentative signs of better exchequer returns and global economic recovery, and there is a prospect that this Government could yet mount a strong challenge for a third term.