The Yes campaign seems to be on course to win the second Nice Treaty referendum on Saturday because the dynamics are quite different this time round. The findings of today's Irish Times/MRBI opinion poll, the second since the start of the campaign, show that 42 per cent of voters intend to vote Yes, an increase of 5 percentage points over three weeks, while 29 per cent, an increase of 4 points, will vote No. The most relevant figure, in this context, is the drop in the number of undecided voters from 32 per cent to 19 per cent in the last three weeks.
With two full campaigning days to go, however, there is no ground for complacency by the Government. The comparable poll one week before the first Nice referendum last year showed that the vote was divided 45 per cent Yes, 28 per cent No and 27 per cent were undecided. The referendum was lost by a margin of 54 per cent to 46 per cent on a turn-out of just over one-third of the electorate.
At face value, the figures are worse this time. But, the underlying trend and the conditions for the campaign are remarkably different. The drift to the Yes side has consolidated over the past three weeks in response to the strong campaign mounted by the Government parties and Fine Gael and the Labour Party. The proportion of undecided voters who are opting for a pro-Nice position is also greater than the declarations against the Treaty. There is also a greater understanding of the issues involved in the Nice Treaty with some 64 per cent of voters stating that they have a good grasp of some, if not all, of them.
For all of that, however, the Government will be alarmed that for the second opinion poll in a row the level of satisfaction with the Taoiseach and the Coalition have reached a new low. Mr Ahern's rating has dropped to 44 per cent, the lowest since he became leader of Fianna Fáil and Taoiseach. For the first time, there are more voters dissatisfied than satisfied with his leadership. The Tánaiste's rating has also fallen by five percentage points to 52 per cent. The Government's satisfaction level has also dropped further.
Somewhat remarkably in these circumstances, support for the Fianna Fáil party has increased by two percentage points to 36 per cent against the backdrop of the fallout from the Flood Tribunal's report, the pessimistic forecasts on the public finances and the latest crisis in the political process in Northern Ireland. The Fine Gael support base has dropped to 19 per cent and the party is coming in behind Labour and just ahead of the smaller parties in Dublin.
The poll shows that the altruistic campaigns by Fine Gael and the Labour Party calling on voters to distinguish between the national interest of the Nice Treaty and dissatisfaction with the Government's performance are bearing fruit. The referendum result will depend ultimately on the determination of Yes voters to turn out to fill in the ballot papers on Saturday.