The two most important developments in politics in 2020 were, firstly, the rise of Sinn Féin and the party’s success at the general election and, secondly, its direct result – the coming together of Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael after nearly a century. So, as the year comes to a close, let’s put the “how it started/how it’s going” lens on them.
This was the year Sinn Féin entered the political mainstream, in the sense that it is now a real contender to be a part of – indeed, to lead – the next government. In fact, you can hardly find anyone in Leinster House who doesn’t believe the party will certainly be in power after the next election. I take the rather more cautious view that predicting next year is difficult enough without forming cast-iron certainties about what’s going to happen in 4½ years’ time. But you can see why people are so convinced of the inevitability of Sinn Féin in government, all the same.
As the leaders of the Opposition, Sinn Féin now has a central position in our politics. With that position, power and status comes a scrutiny that the party has been finding uncomfortable of late. There are plainly problems with aspects of the party’s culture, whether its members and supporters acknowledge it or not. My sense is that the leadership knows this, it just doesn’t want – understandably, perhaps – to talk about it in public.
Significant strengths
The party has built on its very significant strengths. Its message of change still resonates with many voters, though now tends to be expressed as the left populist critique of insiders vs outsiders, establishment vs ordinary people, elite vs everyone else. It is hugely popular among younger voters, many of whom feel locked out of affordable housing and secure employment, and believe the State should do more to help them in their lives.
Sinn Féin’s project is to gain power for the prosecution of two political goals: the reform of the State’s economic policies towards a more left-wing, redistributive model and the unification of Ireland.
Anticipating power, it is now preparing for it. It has looked at the unhappy experiences of left-wing populists in elections – including Jeremy Corbyn and Bernie Sanders – and at their difficulties in government, notably in Greece with Syriza and with Podemos in Spain. It is doing a lot of thinking and planning about how to avoid these pitfalls. Its vast resources as Ireland’s richest party have enabled it to assemble a cadre of researchers and backroom staff which supports its TDs to some effect. Ministers who have undergone Sinn Féin interrogations in committee rooms attest to their sharpness.
Nonetheless, the twin projects of government will be daunting. The left-wing economic project will be confronted not just by the conservatism of the Irish administrative system but by the fiscal realities of governmental. Those realities do not mean that ambitious public spending programmes cannot be undertaken; just that they will have to be financed from somewhere and the sources of finance are not unlimited. Spend less elsewhere; raise taxes somewhere or borrow more – all come with significant complications.
My guess is that the social and economic policies implemented by a Sinn Féin government would not be allowed to distract from the united Ireland project. But here again, there are obstacles. For one rather obvious thing, no Irish government can order a unity poll in the North; that remains the call of the British government, triggered only when the Secretary of State for Northern Ireland believes it is likely to pass. That doesn’t seem imminent, to put it mildly. My guess is that were Sinn Féin in government, it would vastly increase contacts (at least with other Sinn Féin ministers) with the Stormont Executive but I think we are a long way away from either the calling or the winning of a unity referendum in Northern Ireland. And that’s before we even talk about the parallel referendum in the Republic.
And yet, despite those caveats, 2020 was a breakthrough year for Mary Lou McDonald and for Sinn Féin. She and her party have changed Irish politics.
So what of their opponents in government in Dublin?
Cultural and historical divisions
Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael have long been compatible on policy; it was culture and history that divided them. But culture changes, and history moves on. The initial period of mutual suspicion during the summer has given way to something generally more collegial. But the Government still struggles to present and articulate a sense of common purpose. The exception – and it is an important one – is the Minister for Finance Paschal Donohoe and his colleague in the adjacent Department of Public Expenditure, Michael McGrath. But, in the main, the two parties have yet to figure out how they can be allies in government and rivals in politics. My long-term view about the coalition is that its constituent parts will prosper together or fail together. That requires the administration to act together to achieve its objectives.
Its record at the six-month stage is not as bad as it is sometimes presented. The biggest policy challenge has been managing the pandemic. At this point, despite a bit of stop-start, its performance is pretty good. Ireland has the lowest rate of cases in Europe; second wave deaths have been minimal; much of the economy and the schools have been kept open.
The challenge of rolling out the vaccine is a huge one, and to congratulate yourself in the time of Covid (think of Sweden and Germany) seems to invite certain nemesis. But I think it’s a fair judgment to say that Micheál Martin, Leo Varadkar and Eamon Ryan’s Government has performed well on its most important test. And, as Sinn Féin has discovered in Northern Ireland, that is not as easy as it looks.