The Taoiseach is still keeping the date of the election to himself but he has made it plain that he intends to hold it on a Thursday rather than a Friday.
The last two general elections and the last two European and local elections were held on a Friday, in a effort to boost the turnout, but Ahern seems determined to hold the contest on a Thursday this time.
The reason he has given for preferring Thursday is that Friday elections have not improved voter turnout. "I went with the argument the last time that it would be a great help everywhere. It wasn't. It did nothing for the poll. Look at the figures. I went along with that popular argument, and it didn't work," he said last month.
His opponents had a different explanation, claiming Ahern is aiming to keep turnout low because he fears Fianna Fáil will suffer if younger voters came out in droves. Fine Gael produced a Private Members' Bill which would make it mandatory to hold elections on weekends in an effort to point up its opposition to Ahern's argument. The Union of Students in Ireland has claimed young people will be disenfranchised by a Thursday election.
So what do the turnout statistics from recent elections tell us. In the last general election the turnout was 63 per cent and in the one before that in 1997 it was 66 per cent. Both elections were held on a Friday. The last election to be held on a Thursday was in 1992 and the turnout was slightly better at 68 per cent. These figures lend some support to the Taoiseach's argument. However, if the deterioration in the accuracy of the electoral register since 1992 is taken into account there is probably not all that much difference between the turnout figures.
If the trend in all elections and referendums over the past 10 years held during the Fianna Fáil-Progressive Democrat Government's term of office is the yardstick, then the Taoiseach is clearly wrong to suggest that turnout would be improved by moving the election day from Friday to Thursday.
The Friday general election of 1997 produced a turnout of 66 per cent but the presidential election less than four months later was held on a Thursday and the turnout was just 48 per cent. While the presidential election turnout would not be expected to reach general election levels, it was a keenly fought and even bitter contest that should have delivered a higher turnout.
In 1998 the referendums on the Amsterdam Treaty and the Belfast Agreement were held on a Friday and they produced a turnout of 56 per cent. The European and local elections of 1999 were also held on a Friday and the turnout was 51 per cent. By contrast the crucial first Nice Treaty referendum in 2001 was held on a Thursday and turnout slumped to just 35 per cent.
After the fright the Government received from the defeat in that referendum a decision was taken to hold the second Nice Treaty referendum on a Saturday. The clear objective was to boost turnout in the hope of reversing the initial No. The tactic worked as the turnout rose to 50 per cent and there was a clear majority for the Yes case.
The most recent elections were the European and locals of 2004, which were held on a Friday. The turnout at 61 per cent was one of the best ever for a European election. It was probably boosted by the holding of the citizenship referendum on the same day but the turnout came within a whisker of equalling that in the last general election and boosted the argument for holding elections on a Friday.
The clear message from the Nice Treaty referendums and the last European and local elections is that voters are more inclined to come out on a Friday or Saturday. There is certainly no evidence to suggest that moving the election day to a Thursday will improve the turnout and a lot of evidence that it will actually depress the numbers voting.
Opposition politicians believe the disastrous result for Fianna Fáil in the European and local elections of 2004 has prompted the switch to Thursday but that argument does not stand up either. Fianna Fáil did well in the last general election, which took place on a Friday, and came close to winning an overall majority.
Whatever the reason, though, the Taoiseach has not opted for Thursday out of idle curiosity as to whether turnout will rise or fall. Ahern is one of the most astute politicians in Irish political history and he clearly has good reasons in his own mind for choosing Thursday.
One theory is that Ahern believes he was robbed of an overall majority in 2002 by the fact that some potential voters left Dublin early on Friday and didn't bother to vote before going on holidays. He referred back in March to the low turnout in his own constituency last time around and issues affecting Dublin Central are never far from his mind.
The move to a Thursday is likely to reduce turnout as many young people will be away from the places they are registered to vote. This could be offset by the clean-up of the register which will mean the turnout figures will be much more realistic this time. Still, the issue is whether the turnout would be even better on a Friday or Saturday and the evidence on that score is quite clear.
The Government has stressed active citizenship but when it comes to one of the key elements of citizenship, participation in general elections, its approach will make it more difficult for people to exercise their democratic right.