The Yes campaign will have to hit the ground running this week, argues Noel Whelan.
THIS WEEK during the course of his visit to a number of eastern European capitals, Bertie Ahern indicated that our referendum on the Lisbon Treaty will be held in June.
This suggests that the Government has decided to give itself a little more time to persuade the public of the treaty's merits than it had initially envisaged. Only two weeks ago the Taoiseach hinted that the referendum would be in May.
Those putting campaigns together on either side, who had been working towards a date in late May, now have to adjust their plans, although only slightly.
Giving itself the additional time is a wise move on the Government's part. Indeed, postponing the referendum to the autumn might be even wiser. Information levels about the treaty are still extraordinarily low and history suggests that the lower the information levels, the lower the turnout for the referendum. The lower the turnout, the greater the prospect that the referendum will be lost.
The most recent Irish referendums on a European issue were the two votes held on the constitutional amendments necessary to enable us to ratify the Nice Treaty.
Just under 35 per cent of the electorate voted in the first referendum on Nice on Thursday, June 7th, 2001. On that day 997,826 people voted. 453,461 of them voted Yes, while 529,478 voted No, which meant that the constitutional amendment was rejected by 54 per cent to 46 per cent.The second referendum on Nice was held on Saturday, October 19th, 2002. This time the turnout was 49.5 per cent. 1,446,558 people voted: 906,317 voted Yes and 534,887 voted No, which reversed the outcome to 63 per cent in favour and 37 per cent against. The number who voted in the second Nice referendum, therefore, was an increase of 458,372 but this increase in the vote benefited the Yes side by a massive 452,856 votes, while only adding a mere 5,516 to the No vote. This shift in turnout clearly showed that mobilising the potential Yes voters is the most important task facing the Yes campaign. The No campaigners have a vested interest in a low turnout.
The polling data published on the 2001 Nice referendum and the 2002 Nice referendum confirms this view. The MRBI polls published in this newspaper in the lead up to both referendums showed more potential Yes voters among the electorate than potential No voters. Abstentions in June 2001 came disproportionally from the Yes side. When approached at their homes by pollsters in the weeks before the 2001 referendum, a clear majority said they would vote Yes. However, in that referendum the No voters proved more pro-active in actually leaving their homes and going to the polling stations.
The last in a series of MRBI polls published in this paper in the lead up to the 2001 referendum suggested that 45 per cent would vote Yes, 28 per cent would vote No, with 27 per cent having no opinion.
On polling day itself, however, the variables of the turnout meant that the margin of support turned into a defeat for the treaty. It was the portion of the electorate who did not vote who determined the outcome.
The precedents also suggest that the best way to increase turnout among potential Yes voters is to raise information levels. The poll data shows that the main source of abstention in both referendums was a lack of understanding of the issues.
A more vigorous campaign by the Yes side and a deeper level of debate, particularly in the broadcast media in advance of the 2002 Nice referendum, enabled a greater understanding by the public of the issues involved.
A week before that referendum some 64 per cent of voters stated that they had a good grasp of some, if not all, of the issues. The corresponding figure one week before the 2001 referendum was just 47 per cent.
All of the data from polling conducted before on and after the 2002 referendum, and also a comprehensive study of the factors which contributed to the turnaround conducted by Dr Richard Sinnott, point to the conclusion that it was increased information levels that won it for the Yes side in the second Nice referendum. Strategists for the Yes campaign in the forthcoming Lisbon referendum must now be concerned that time is running out.
The information process is starting from a very low base, because, even though the negotiations on this treaty and the originally proposed European constitution have been ongoing for over five years, the technical and inter-governmental nature of the negotiation process means that most of the public remained uninvolved and therefore uniformed.
Little has been done since the treaty has been signed to ensure a basic public understanding of its content sufficient to enable an informed public debate to take place.
The legislation providing for the referendum could be published as early as next Tuesday.
The Yes campaign will have to hit the ground running this week if it is to make up the information shortfall.