Too close to call

The US presidential election campaign goes into the home stretch closer than any in the last 40 years

The US presidential election campaign goes into the home stretch closer than any in the last 40 years. The third and final television debate appears only marginally to have affected the two candidates' standing with prospective voters. While most of them have made up their minds by now, an estimated 7-15 per cent, mainly in the mid-West states, are still undecided how to vote. Both Mr George W Bush and Mr Al Gore are targeting them intensively in the closing stages of the campaign. It is very unclear whether they will respond more to the detailed policy plans offered aggressively by Mr Gore or the more relaxed broad brush strokes put forward by Mr Bush.

Their encounter concentrated almost exclusively on US domestic politics, covering alternative plans for health care, education, taxation, gun control, social security and the environment. Whatever about their differing styles of argument, the electorate is being offered very different sets of policies on most of these issues - there is much more consensus between them on foreign policy. As important, are their contrasting personalities, credibility and whether voters like them as individuals.

These essentially psychological judgments are more important than is often allowed by analysts. They offer clues on how the candidates would behave under pressure and whether they could be trusted with such an important office. In this respect, Mr Bush has performed exceptionally well so far. His initial image as a gaffe-prone incompetent has remained decidedly unconfirmed. He has managed to remain calm under pressure from the more knowledgeable and experienced Mr Gore. Many voters may consider such aptitudes just as important in Mr Bush as the detailed policy awareness so conspicuously on display from his opponent.

Mr Gore has returned to the strongly distributive policies emphasised in the earlier stages of his campaign in order to consolidate his party's traditional voting base, which he badly needs to do. In this debate he advised middle-class and working families to vote Democrat as the best means of protecting the improved standard of living that came their way during the Clinton years and the long 1990s boom. He says Mr Bush cannot be trusted to continue that buoyancy, and further, that his taxation policies would richly reward wealthy rather than ordinary Americans. Mr Bush is uncomfortable with such accusations and unconvincing when he argues that a return to lighter taxation would avoid such an outcome. His policy line also emphasises Congressional consensus, in stark contrast to the ideological partisanship characteristic of the previous Republican generation of politicians.

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So it is all to play for in the closing stages of this campaign. It remains a comparatively uninspiring contest despite being so finely balanced. But it has been a relatively clean one. That may change as the candidates go after floating voters in key states between now and November 7th and struggle to tap into final sources of appeal and support. It will provide a fascinating finale to the contest.