The failure of the Northern Ireland political parties to reach agreement on the number and functions of the implementation bodies to deal with North/South co-operation represents a considerable disappointment and a potent danger. In particular, the failure of the British Prime Minister, Mr Blair, to secure a lasting agreement with the Ulster Unionist Party on the establishment of 10 ministerial positions, and their functions, throws into high relief the difficulties now facing the negotiating process. The deputy leader of the UUP, Mr John Taylor, has spoken of the possibility of agreement being reached next week on these matters. But given his party's overnight rethink on matters painstakingly agreed with Mr Blair, and its determination to ensure the North/South bodies should number no more than six, such a development appears unlikely. A political vacuum over the Christmas period that the Taoiseach, Mr Ahern, warned about in recent weeks is in danger of becoming a reality.
Slow progress in implementing the more difficult aspects of the Belfast Agreement was anticipated. For the division and conflict the Agreement seeks to resolve have sunk such long, damaging tendrils into both communities that only age will wither them. Fear and distrust are part of the fabric of Northern Ireland politics. Arms decommissioning has become a test of republican good faith as far as the Ulster Unionists are concerned. In much the same way, Sinn Fein and republicans are demanding the implementation of major elements of the agreement as evidence of fundamental political change within the unionist community,
In that context, the Taoiseach persuaded Mr Blair that the most productive way forward was to agree, before Christmas, the shape and content of the Northern executive, along with the detail of North/South bodies, so as to prevent a political vacuum emerging. Such a strict timetable was important because of the requirement placed on the two governments to give legislative effect to the North/South implementation bodies, in advance of the transfer of powers at the end of February. With such arrangements in place, Mr Ahern argued, the pressure would be on Sinn Fein to persuade the IRA to begin the decommissioning process.
The reasoning behind the position now adopted by the Ulster Unionist Party is unclear. But its Assembly members may feel they were being forced into a position where they would be asked to share executive power with Sinn Fein in advance of decommissioning. They were encouraged in that belief by the Conservative Party in the House of Commons last Wednesday when there was concerted criticism of the British government's failure to secure progress on the issue. If those are the concerns that underpin their volte-face, they have not been listening to Mr Ahern in recent days. The Taoiseach has dismissed the notion of an "armed peace" and said that action would be required on arms decommissioning in return for political movement by the UUP.
It is ironic that, even as negotiations on political structures falter, Northern Ireland's First Minister, Mr Trimble, and the leader of the SDLP, Mr John Hume, are preparing to visit Oslo next Thursday to receive their Nobel Prizes for peace. Nobody expected the process to be easy. And the latest hiatus bears the hallmarks of political strategy, rather than fundamental disagreement. The sooner unionists and republicans decide to implement the terms of the Belfast Agreement in full, the better. As Mr Blair said when he visited the Dail last week: we have come too far to turn back now.