INSIDE POLITICS:The period since August has inflicted appalling damage on the Government's fitness to function, writes Mark Hennessy.
FIANNA FÁIL TDs, one must hope, had a nice Christmas, because, if so, it was the last such period that they can expect for quite some time,
In truth, they are caught in a bind. They cannot go to the country, because they will suffer a massacre if they do, and, yet, they cannot go on as they are. Usually, one expects a weary cynicism, if nothing else, from FF backbenchers, and an ability to cope with the varying fortunes of politics. Many of them, however, are now displaying signs of near-panic - something not helped by the fact that many Ministers are behaving little better.
The months since last August have inflicted appalling damage upon the Government's fitness to govern, but, just as significantly, upon the mental reserves of all involved.
The latter point should not be under-estimated. Sometimes people just get tired and unable to cope with yet another day of attacks that hit home.
It cannot sustain another six, let alone 12 months, of the same. If it does, it is in serious danger of stumbling into an election that it cannot win. And stamina will be needed, for it is going to take five years to repair the State's finances, and that is assuming that the right decisions are taken now. Up to now, the over-70s were the ones most annoyed by the October budget, but the 1 per cent levy will start to impact on everyone else's pay cheque from now on.
A host of other bad tidings and accelerating new year job losses - if all the predictions are to be believed, as it seems they are - will further darken the public's mood.
In the way of eaten bread, the gains offered to many by falling mortgage payments, and by the falling cost of other negotiable bills, will do little to balance the scales.
Taoiseach Brian Cowen must, therefore, start both to look and perform like a leader from the off if some steel is to be put into the spines of his troops. So far, he has done none of the first, and little of the second, and it is time that he started to listen to some of those who have tried to tell him so.
The public demands, and has a right to demand, that its leaders look like leaders. Presentation does matter, if only because it shows respect for one's audience.
Bertie Ahern, once mocked because of his anorak, was transformed into a stylish, well-kept man, conscious of the need for make-up during Dáil appearances.
It is a lesson that Cowen, who has the air of the 1950s about him in so many ways, stubbornly refuses to heed, if only because he has never liked unwelcome news.
During Ahern's time, Government Buildings was a smoothly oiled, quite happy place of work (by the standards of what passes for normal in the world of politics). Partly this was because Ahern spent little time there, and partly because he understood the need to keep people sweet for his own advantage when he was around.
Equally, he had the ability to hunker down and let political storms pass over him, and the luck to serve during a time of plenty - much of which he wasted. But he was equally quick to deliver judgments and decisions, contrary to his public reputation - a trait liked by administrations.
Since Cowen has taken over, Government Buildings has been dysfunctional, with officials struggling to come to terms with the new man's moods, needs and demands. The Cabinet is operating little better. Most Ministers know little of what is going on and only find out at the last minute, if even then. FF Ministers' once useful weekly pre-Cabinet meeting has deteriorated into little more than a disorganised morning huddle over coffee. Up to now, some have spoken about a triumvirate involving Cowen, Minister for Finance Brian Lenihan, and Tánaiste Mary Coughlan. In truth, it does not exist - not in any meaningful sense, at any rate. In fact, the relationship between Cowen and Lenihan is frequently fractious, or ill-at-ease.
Coughlan, who in one evening at the height of the over-70s crisis destroyed 20 years of political capital earned with FF backbenchers, is increasingly irrelevant. One could be forgiven for thinking that they are the only Fianna Fáil Ministers in Government, given the near-invisibility of others.
The invisibility is partly pique at being left in the dark, and partly sound political judgment by those who do not want to be hanged for the mistakes of others.
Cowen's future could be decided by the results of the June elections, or by Lisbon; but, more likely, the die will finally have been cast months before then. Criticised for conceding too much power to trades unions and others, Cowen's first challenge must be to renegotiate social partnership: not to fiddle with it or play with it. He is right in believing that unilateral decisions by Government would result in industrial unrest, and little practical gains. Unions, particularly those with large public service numbers, should be given the chance to shape their own destiny, but not the right of veto.
The exchequer needs public service pay cuts and wide-scale immediate reform. So far the unions want neither, but they clearly will push for voluntary redundancies first. Understandably so, from their point of view. But such a plan will cost a fortune that the State does not have, and should be resisted.
The State does not necessarily need fewer public servants. But it does need better and cheaper-delivered public services. And the Taoiseach must be the one to deliver them, and he and his Cabinet must stand and face down the inevitable backlash afterwards.
Now is the time for clear, hard and ruthless decision-making, backed up by clear communications afterwards. So far, Cowen has never managed to combine the two.
And it is not going to be easy or pleasant - least of all for the man who has had the easiest ascent of any to the role of Taoiseach, and the toughest time since.
Stephen Collins is on leave